According to CryptoQuant data, spending by investors who bought Bitcoin more than five years ago has fallen to 962 BTC on a 90-day average. This level was recorded as the lowest value since November 2024. The data showed long-term investors slowing down significantly on the sell side after three major spending waves in the last two years.
Selling pressure has weakened among long-term investors
Crypto analyst Darkfost noted that the current cycle saw some of the highest selling activity ever by long-term Bitcoin investors. The group examined consists of wallets that acquired Bitcoin at least five years ago. The analysis used spent transaction output data, which tracks the amount of Bitcoin moving on the network.
By this measure, the 90-day moving average peaked at 3,860 BTC in May 2024, 3,200 BTC in February 2025, and 2,360 BTC in September 2025. On some individual days, the amount moved on the network exceeded 10,000 BTC, 30,000 BTC and even 142,000 BTC.
The data revealed that the large sales waves that occurred after three strong rises in the last two years were replaced by a more limited spending trend on the part of long-term investors.
Recently, this pressure has decreased sharply. While the 90-day average decreased to 962 BTC, Darkfost stated that the highest-cost Bitcoins held by this group were purchased at approximately $ 63,200. Although current prices were close to this cost, many investors did not sell, indicating that long-term owners were waiting.
Distinction between new and old investors came to the fore
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. said that there is a clear separation in the market between new investors and old investors. According to Adler Jr., aNUPL, Bitcoin’s adjusted net unrealized profit and loss indicator, fell to minus 0.14 from near zero a month ago. During the period when BTC was trading around $62,500, this data showed that the average investor again suffered unrealized losses.
Mini dictionary: aNUPL is an indicator that measures whether investors are making a profit or a loss on paper on the assets they hold. Values below zero may indicate increasing loss pressure throughout the market.
Adler Jr. argued that the indicator remained below zero for almost half of the last three months, which showed that the pressure was more concentrated on new market participants.
According to the analyst, this picture highlights the ongoing difficulty among shorter-term and newer buyers, rather than a widespread surrender among long-term investors.
Halving cycle pointed to September
In another assessment of the market, analyst LP noted a recurring pattern linked to Bitcoin halving cycles. Accordingly, the last strong decline phase in the previous bear market occurred 826 days after the halving. After this process, the main bottom level was seen and the price moved horizontally between 70 and 110 days.
In the current cycle, the 826-day threshold corresponds to July 6. When the same time period is applied, the calendar points to early September for the possible bottom zone. The analyst stated that this scenario could become more important, especially if Bitcoin remains at higher levels until early July.
Trader Titan also said that there is an area of liquidity below current levels. He noted that there is an untaken bottom near $58,900 on the quarterly chart and a clear fair value gap between approximately $49,000 and $58,900. It was evaluated that this region could be monitored for a possible market bottom that may occur between the third quarter and the fourth quarter.
