Bitcoin is down more than 50% from its all-time high. Miners are shutting off machines. Capital that spent years flowing into crypto is chasing AI stocks instead. And the question being asked across every corner of the market right now is the same one it always is at moments like this: is it ever going to end?
Where Did All the Money Go
For anyone confused about why Bitcoin has been bleeding while the stock market printed record highs, Michael Saylor laid it out in a recent interview. The AI industry is currently trying to raise approximately $500 billion to power data centres, and that capital has to come from somewhere. A portion of it, he said, is coming directly from Bitcoin.
“They’re creating a suction and they’re sucking capital out of every other asset class,” Saylor said. “One or two percent of that capital is coming from Bitcoin.”
His view is that this rotation is temporary by nature. Once the AI deals close and lockup periods expire, the traders and hedge funds who got in early will rotate profits back into other assets including Bitcoin. He estimates a 12 to 24 week cycle before that reversal becomes visible, pointing to the end of 2026 as the window where things start to shift.
What the Data Is Saying
The 2018 bear market lasted 364 days. The 2022 bear market lasted 367 days. The current cycle is approximately 200 days old. If history holds, the bottom arrives around 160 days from now, in the second half of 2026.
But several signals suggest this cycle may resolve faster. The Coinbase Bitcoin premium has been negative for 47 consecutive days, the longest streak in more than four years. The Bitcoin rainbow chart is showing fire sale territory. Mining difficulty has dropped 20% from its all-time high, the largest decline since China banned Bitcoin mining in 2021. When miners shut off machines at this scale it has historically marked the point where selling pressure begins to ease and cycle lows form.
Even Peter Schiff Has Blinked
Perhaps the most telling moment came from Bitcoin’s most famous critic. Peter Schiff, who has spent years predicting Bitcoin would eventually go to zero, was recently challenged on live television to bet on whether Bitcoin would still exist in a decade. He went quiet. When pushed for an answer he finally admitted it: “It’s not going to go to zero, maybe.”
From the man who built a career burying Bitcoin, that is not a small concession.
What Comes Next
The bear market is not over. But the evidence building across miner data, on-chain indicators and historical cycle timing all points to the same conclusion: it is closer to ending than most people currently believe. Every bear market in Bitcoin’s history has ended. Every single one was followed by a recovery to new highs. The only variable has ever been patience.
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