Cryptocurrency analyst Michael van de Poppe stated that the recent horizontal course in Bitcoin has not yet turned into a real break. The broader market outlook remains tied to Strategy’s STRC preferred shares, despite weakness in equity markets, according to the analyst. Van de Poppe said that Bitcoin’s rise above $66,000 could be the critical threshold for it to regain strong upward momentum.
The $66,000 level came to the fore
Van de Poppe emphasized that it is too early to talk about a permanent rise as long as Bitcoin remains below this level. He stated that if BTC falls lower, tests new lows and then regains the lost area in a short time, this can be considered a strong sign for buy positions.
According to Michael van de Poppe, in order to talk about a strong rise in Bitcoin again, the movement above $ 66,000 must become permanent.
The analyst also noted that the intermediate zones between the two main levels are not conducive for trading. Stating that the main goal for this week is for Bitcoin to hold above the 200-week moving average, Van de Poppe reminded that the level in question worked as a market bottom in the previous few cycles.
Pressure on STRC side is being closely monitored
The STRC dependency noted by Van de Poppe was also addressed by another analyst writing under the pseudonym WilcosX. WilcosX considered STRC falling below $100 not only as weakness in preferred shares, but as a direct blow to Strategy’s Bitcoin accumulation mechanism. Strategy is known as the company previously known as MicroStrategy and stands out for holding a large amount of Bitcoin on its balance sheet.
Mini dictionary: Preferred shares are a type of shares that generally grant fixed dividend rights and have different characteristics than ordinary shares. Par value refers to the nominal value of these shares on which they are issued.
According to the analyst, the previous structure was quite simple. Strategy was issuing STRC around $100, paying high dividends, buying BTC with the resources provided from here, and the increase in Bitcoin price also supported this structure. However, as STRC fell below par value, the view that this cycle was not working as efficiently as before came to the fore.
WilcosX argued that the decline in STRC below $100 directly pressured Strategy’s Bitcoin buying pattern.
BTC purchases may slow down if financing costs increase
According to WilcosX, the effects of this process may be chain-linked. As the company’s cost of capital rises, the attractiveness of new issues decreases. If Strategy sells STRC below par value, it still has to pay the dividend at the declared value of $100 while raising less funds. This weakens the issue preferred shares, buy BTC scheme.
| Title | previous situation | current risk |
|---|---|---|
| STRC price | around 100 dollars | under $100 |
| Fund raising efficiency | stronger | more limited |
| Bitcoin purchasing capacity | higher | Risk of slowdown |
For this reason, it is considered that cryptocurrency purchases may slow down. WilcosX argued that if STRC ceases to be an effective financing channel, the company will be left with fewer easy options to increase its BTC holdings outside of common stock, debt, cash reserves, or limited Bitcoin sales.
According to the analyst, some risks have already become visible. The company stopped issuing new shares through its direct-to-market program and sold some of its Bitcoin holdings to pay dividends for the first time. WilcosX stated that this does not mean that the model has completely collapsed yet, but that the structure has become more fragile in an environment where the market demands a return of over 13 percent for financing.
