Bernstein, the financial group that manages approximately $880 billion in assets, saw the recent decline in Bitcoin as a base and announced a $450 price target for Strategy shares. This estimate indicates that there is a 226 percent increase potential in the stock compared to Monday’s closing value.
Price Floor Formed by Corporate Demand
After Bitcoin peaked at $126,210 on October 6, 2025, it entered a period of 44 percent decline with a sudden loss of value on October 10. The main reasons for this drastic move included forced liquidations in leveraged transactions and geopolitical tensions in February 2026. Despite this, Bitcoin stabilized around $71,000.
According to Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani, the influence of institutional investors stands out in the market’s ability to hold on to this level. While previous cycles had seen much deeper losses, this time ETFs and corporate treasury purchases countered the selling pressure.
The $2.2 billion net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs over the past four weeks marked a reversal of year-to-date outflows. Thus, the total inflow has already closed the year at 364 million dollars plus. The amount of Bitcoin held in ETFs reaching 6.1 percent of the total supply is seen as a structural transformation.
Bernstein’s Bitcoin target for the end of the year is $150,000; This forecast is based on the continuation of corporate purchasing appetite in the medium term.
The Basis for the Rise Expectation in Strategy Shares
Strategy company; It is an institution that operates at the intersection of technology and finance and attracts attention with the large Bitcoin reserves it manages. According to the latest data, the company reached a total of 762,099 BTC with the last purchase completed last week, and the market value of this amount corresponds to approximately 51.4 billion dollars.
While the company has a total of $56 billion worth of Bitcoin and cash on its balance sheet, the value of financial debts is at $18 billion. Cash reserves are sufficient to cover the company’s annual interest and dividend obligations for 25 months. The Bitcoin portfolio is capable of covering annual financing expenses for approximately 50 years.
Strategy shares are highly affected by Bitcoin price movements as the company continues to purchase Bitcoin with the funds obtained from capital increases. The $450 target set for shares trading at $138.20 is attributed to both Bitcoin’s recovery and the company’s capital raising dynamic.
Preferred shares, which were launched in July 2025 with the symbol STRC, provide an annual return of 11.5 percent, while the transaction volume increased by 65 percent in the last three months, making them the most liquid product in the category. The 57 percent decline in the stock in the last six months and 59 percent in the last year is explained by the dilution effect created by new capital increases.
In the last month, the stock has recovered by 10.9 percent. Bernstein is of the opinion that the dilution risk in this recovery is largely priced in.
