This week, Bitcoin is at the intersection of two important technical zones that investors are watching closely. On the one hand, the resistance line of the long-standing downtrend is seen, and on the other hand, the value of the 200-week weighted moving average (WMA). The reaction of the price at this point may shape the coming weeks.
Technical indicators: Will the downtrend be broken?
In the chart shared by the analyst nicknamed Surf, it can be seen that Bitcoin is testing both the short-term downtrend line and the 200 WMA on a weekly basis. It is reported that a similar structure occurred in the cycles of 2018 and 2022, the price first broke this downward trend and then approached the 200 WMA level and stabilized in that region, and then a recovery occurred as the trend weakened.
The same technical formation has come to the fore again in the current chart. Bitcoin is priced right near the 200-week weighted average as it faces a brief downtrend after pulling back from its recent peak. Price movement stuck between these two levels marks a critical period for investors.
Mini dictionary: 200-week weighted moving average (WMA) is a technical analysis tool that is calculated by giving weight to the price of the past 200 weeks and shows long-term support/resistance points. It is frequently followed in crypto markets so that investors can see long-term trends.
In the Surf indicator, it is emphasized that blue bands have historically formed at cycle bottoms or recovery phases, and these structures are seen again in the current price movement. According to the chart analysis, if there is a break in the short-term downtrend of the price, it is thought that the selling pressure may weaken and there may be a chance to rise to the weekly main trend area again.
In his posts, Surf states that the structures seen in the chart have appeared similarly in Bitcoin’s past cycles and that the blue bands indicate major market transformations.
However, if the price cannot hold below the 200-week weighted average, there may be a possibility of a horizontal trend or a retreat to lower support levels.
Bull Market Support Band: Which is the main support line of the market?
Another prominent analysis can be seen on the weekly chart shared by Daan Crypto Trades. Here Bitcoin is shown to be floating above the bullish market support band after the recent pullback. The support band in question falls between $75 thousand and $78,500.
This price range is seen as a threshold that must be maintained for the bulls to maintain control in the short and medium term. In past cycles, this support band has been decisive in terms of the direction of the trend for Bitcoin. Testing this area again after the correction in recent weeks indicates that the market’s search for direction continues.
Daan Crypto Trades emphasizes that the price “maintains the support band” but buyers must continue to fight to avoid breaking this level.
On the same chart, it is stated that the weekly 200 EMA is at $68,871 levels and the first important lower support may form here. As deeper support, the 200-week moving average at $61,373 is shown.
| Technical Zone | Price Level | Importance |
|---|---|---|
| Bull Market Support Band | $75,000 – $78,500 | Short/medium term major support should be maintained for uptrend |
| 200-week EMA | $68,871 | Next important lower support |
| 200 weeks MA | $61,373 | Deeper and stronger support zone |
Considering these levels, in order for Bitcoin to maintain bull momentum, it must first not lose the support band between $ 75 thousand and $ 78,500. If this area is maintained, a continuation of the upward movement may be possible; Otherwise, 200 EMA will be followed first, followed by deeper support levels.
