The downward trend seen in the cryptocurrency market in recent days negatively affects the prices of Bitcoin and leading altcoins. Bitcoin fell below $75,000 on Wednesday, indicating that sellers were gaining ground in the market. There was also a significant outflow of funds from Bitcoin ETFs held by institutional investors. In particular, a total net outflow of $1.88 billion has been recorded from BTC ETFs since May 15.
Institutions Are Withdrawing from Bitcoin ETFs
According to data from Farside Investors, there have been net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs on nearly every trading day since May 7. Crypto analysis company Glassnode announced that while these outflows increased the supply in the market, they did not find a response in demand. In its latest report, Bitwise emphasized that Bitcoin fell below its long-term valuation average. According to the company’s data, historically, the rate of periods when BTC’s market value and realized value (MVRV) was lower than the current level of 1.42 is only 36 percent. In the same period, this rate was 99 percent in the Nasdaq-100 index, showing that the valuation difference between crypto and US technology stocks has reached a record level.
Bitwise’s analysis included the evaluation: “Only in short periods in the past has the market value of Bitcoin fallen this much below its realized value. Current levels mark the period when the historical valuation difference between indices was the highest.”
Whales Chasing Opportunities
Despite the decline in the market, some large investors turned to purchasing. Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, announced that a crypto “whale” has collected an average of 450 BTC per day for the last eight and a half days. It was stated that this investor purchased at low prices using the time-weighted average price method.
Mini dictionary: Time-weighted average price (TWAP) ensures that transactions are carried out systematically, at certain intervals, in order to reduce the impact of large volume purchases on the market. Thus, sudden price fluctuations that occur in single transactions are prevented.
Critical Supports in Bitcoin and Altcoins
Technical analysis shows Bitcoin rejected from its 20-day exponential moving average at $77,431. There is currently an intense struggle between buyers and sellers in the support zone between $76,000 and $74,289. If this level breaks below, it is possible for the price to retreat to the support at $70,500. However, if the buyers can react strongly at the support point, a rise to 82 thousand dollars and then to 84 thousand dollars may come to the fore.
| Coin | Critical Support | Resistance | Short Term Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | $74,289 | $77,431 / $82,000 | If the easing continues, $70,500 may come to the fore |
| ETH | $2,000 | $2,465 | Possibility of a pullback to $1.916–$1.750 |
| BNB | $636 / $610 | $687 / $730 | Risk of decline to $570 |
| XRP | $1.27 | $1.37 / $1.61 | Possibility of a sharp drop to $1 |
| LEFT | $82.65 / $76 | $98 | Possible drop to $76 |
Weakness Continues in Altcoins
Although Ethereum finds psychological support at $ 2,000, if this level is broken, there is a possibility of retreating to the range of 1,916 to 1,750 dollars. For an upside possibility, the price will need to rise above the moving averages. Binance Coin is trying to hold on above the 20-day exponential average at $652, but if it falls below $636, a drop may be seen first to $610 and then to $570.
As XRP approaches the key support at $1.27, the bulls are expected to mount a strong defense here. However, if there is a close below $ 1.27, a new decline to 1.11 and then to $ 1 is possible. Solana’s price is stuck between the 20-day exponential average at $86.42 and the support at $82.65. If this range is broken down, there may be relaxation up to $76.
HYPE, ZEC, ADA and XMR: Other Highlights
HYPE (hyperliquid) faced a sharp sell-off at $64.93 and is now testing the support level at $59.41. If this level is broken below, the support at $ 52.14 may come to the fore, and below, $ 44.92 may come to the fore.
While Zcash fell from $690 on Monday, it remains below the 20-day average of $571. If the sellers gain the upper hand, it may push the price to the range of $486 to $457. Cardano (ADA), on the other hand, remained below the moving averages and remained close to the $ 0.22 support. The price may need to break above the moving average and exceed $0.31 for the rise to begin.
Monero (XMR), on the other hand, maintained its ascending channel formation and received support from the 50-day average at $378. However, a downside breakout could pull the price back to the support line of the channel.
