The worst of the selling may have slowed, but the crypto market is not out of danger yet. After a week of heavy losses driven by hot US inflation data and a tech stock rout, Bitcoin is sitting on its final major support zone. Ethereum and XRP still look weak.
According to an analyst Josh of Crypto World, the next few days could set the market’s direction for the following two to three weeks.
Bitcoin: Hanging On At The Edge
Bitcoin is testing the lower end of its $74,000 to $76,000 support zone, a range that has held for weeks.
The bearish case: If Bitcoin closes below $73,000 to $74,000 on the daily chart and fails to climb back above it, the next target is $65,000 to $67,000. That zone matters for two reasons:
- It acted as both support and major resistance in the past
- A large cluster of liquidation orders is sitting near $65,000 to $66,000, and prices often move toward levels like this
The bullish case: On the 12-hour chart, Bitcoin may be forming a bullish divergence, with lower lows in price but higher lows in momentum. The outlook calls this Bitcoin’s “last chance” to set up a short-term relief bounce. Any small further drop could cancel the signal entirely. Even if it confirms, it would likely mean only a pause of a few days, not a full recovery. Short-term upside liquidity sits near $76,000.
The long view: The weekly Supertrend indicator is still green, and a long-term bullish divergence on the weekly chart has not been cancelled. If the weakness lasts several more months, though, that could change.
Bitcoin Dominance: The Biggest Risk For Altcoins
Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market is rising and testing 60.5% to 61%, a ceiling that has held for about a year.
If dominance closes above roughly 61.5% on the three-day or weekly chart, it would mark a major shift into a longer uptrend for Bitcoin dominance. The outlook warns that could be “devastating” for altcoins, especially while Bitcoin itself is still cooling off. Many large altcoins could see sharp drops in that scenario.
That breakout has not happened yet, but it is close.
Ethereum: One Last Chance For A Bounce
Ethereum is still showing a bearish divergence on the daily chart, a pattern that has pointed to weakness for more than a month. Like Bitcoin, ETH may be forming a bullish divergence. That would be the first sign the weakness is ending, but it needs confirmation.
If ETH slips even a little lower, momentum indicators could make new lows alongside price, cancelling the setup and pointing to more downside.
XRP: Oversold, But Still The Weakest Link
XRP has dropped into oversold territory on the daily chart, but its bearish divergence is still in play. Josh’s outlook says that XRP tends to fall harder than Bitcoin when the market loses momentum, and to rally harder during strong bull runs.
Support levels to watch:
- About $1.05: first minor support
- About $1.03: the next important level
- $0.99 to $1: the last major support before much lower targets
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