Rising Treasury yields usually spell trouble for risk assets. Fundstrat’s Sean Farrell thinks this time they are setting up Bitcoin’s next big move, and he expects the price to climb back above $100,000 before the year is out.
The call
Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat, said that Bitcoin has already made a “durable” cycle low and that a new cycle has likely started.
“I actually do think we could get above that 100k level before 2026 wraps up,” he said. He added that his earlier target of $115,000 now looks out of reach for this year.
Bitcoin traded near $86,000 on Monday. A move to $100,000 would be a gain of about 16% from there.
Why high yields could help Bitcoin
The 10-year Treasury yield is at its highest level since 2007, and markets have priced in four rate hikes over the next 12 months. Normally that would hurt crypto. Farrell called the tension “a bull case in and of itself,” and laid out why:
- US debt is the real problem: Debt stands above 120% of GDP and the fiscal deficit is running at 6% to 7% of GDP. Higher rates make both worse.
- The CBO warning: Farrell cited a Congressional Budget Office report showing that a 1 percentage point rise in average interest costs would push the 30-year deficit projection from 9% of GDP to 14%.
- The Treasury stepped in: On August 19, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced larger buybacks of long-dated Treasuries, paid for by issuing short-term bills.
How that reaches Bitcoin
Farrell described the Treasury’s move as market intervention that acts like stimulus. Banks absorb the new bills and create money in the private market. In his words, that “leads to monetary debasement, and monetary debasement leads to Bitcoin outperformance.”
He said policymakers have been following the same playbook for five to six years: let inflation run and hold down borrowing costs. A further cut in long-term bond issuance, he argued, could be an “explosive catalyst” for Bitcoin and the wider crypto market.
Tokenization adds to the demand
Farrell also linked the SEC’s innovation exemption to this trend. He said the exemption requires each tokenized stock to be paired with a stablecoin or money market fund. If trillions of dollars in equities move on-chain, that creates more demand for the short-term bills the government needs to sell.
He said that Ethereum has been the strongest performer in the third quarter, while Solana continues to trade as a higher-risk play on the same theme.
What he tells investors
Farrell does not expect “a straight shot up.” He said a 10% pullback is possible, but investors who are not using leverage should not worry about it. He expects buyers to step in quickly on any dip.
“It is time to think about getting more aggressive over a medium to longer-term time horizon,” he said.
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