Bitcoin spent the week between two different outlooks. On the one hand, the improvement in on-chain buying pressure and spot ETF inflows came to the fore, while on the other hand, the cautious atmosphere fueled by investor sentiment and news flow was maintained.
Remarkable data on the purchasing side
The cumulative volume difference across spot and futures indicated $925 million in net buying for Bitcoin on July 15. This table showed that the decline in open position and price following the CPI data was covered by purchases in the order book. Thus, selling pressure was balanced rather than deepening.
On the same day, a net inflow of $107.7 million was recorded in spot Bitcoin ETFs. This data, which came after the $181 million inflow seen on July 14, revealed that there was a positive flow for two consecutive days. Spot Bitcoin ETFs are known as funds that hold Bitcoin directly and are traded through the traditional exchange infrastructure.
| Indicator | History | Data |
|---|---|---|
| net purchase | 15 July | $925 million |
| Spot ETF net inflow | 15 July | $107.7 million |
| Spot ETF net inflow | 14 July | $181 million |
The net purchase of $925 million on July 15 covered the post-CPI retreat without turning into a sales wave.
The price decreased slightly while the leverage was resolved
Funding rates hovered between 0.10% and 0.22% for most of last week, then dropped to 0.048%. While there was a 3.4% decrease in open positions compared to Tuesday’s peak, the loss in Bitcoin price was limited to approximately 1.5% in the same period. This outlook points to a reduction in the market’s position in the local band tops of $65,000 and $66,000, rather than a complete dissipation of leveraged long positions.
Although the price has recovered approximately 4.4% from its recent bottom of $62,100, the Fear and Greed Index remains at 26. This shows that market sentiment still remains in fear territory.
Bitcoin is up about 4.4% from its recent bottom, while the Fear and Greed Index remains at 26.
Headlines that limit risk appetite
Despite positive spot, futures and ETF data, the market does not seem to have priced this chart as a clear trend change yet. Although two days of confirmed buying are notable, current data alone does not confirm a change in direction.
On the macro side, headlines that support the cautious outlook stand out. It is stated that the USA’s war with Iran started again this week, the oil price rose above 85 dollars, and the probability of the Fed increasing interest rates by September 2026 remains above 44%.
In addition, the fact that funding rates are approaching neutral levels, spot Bitcoin ETF flows are still in the negative zone for the year, and the long position liquidation cluster is approximately 1.5% below around $ 63,200, shows that the downside sensitivity has not completely disappeared.
