Due to the fluctuation in technology stocks US futures The day started negatively. While the article was being prepared, the statements of the members opposing the interest rate decision continue. BTC maintains 92 thousand dollars, but there is no guarantee that another decline will not start from here, and the majority think that sales may accelerate 1 hour before the stock market opens.
Today in Cryptocurrencies
Today employment and unemployment data It was supposed to come, but the calendar was disrupted due to the closure, causing them to be postponed. Nasdaq 100 contracts fell 0.5% at the open, while Broadcom fell 5% in premarket trading as sales forecasts fell short of overly optimistic expectations.
Although S&P 500 futures made a record close in the previous session, they fell at today’s open. It is unclear whether these sales are short-term, but many investors think that the Fed’s latest decision indicates the continuation of the discount cycle, meaning that hopes for a year-end rally are not over. While gold continued its rise on the fourth day, silver and oil recovered from the 2-month low in the ATH region.
Throughout today, Hammack, Goolsbee and Paulson will make statements about the economy. at 21:30 trump He may speak at the swearing-in ceremony, and we will see him make remarks while signing the bill at 23:00. What will determine how we start the weekend may be the performance of the US stock markets today, so the fluctuation that will start at 17:30 is important.
Why shouldn’t there be an interest rate cut?
Jeff Schmid last 2 interest rate reduction He is in opposition, and this time Goolsbee did not leave him alone in his objection to this week’s decision. At the time the article was being prepared, Fed member Hammack criticized Miran’s overly dovish attitude, saying, “One of the Fed members is still connected to the White House, and this is an unusual situation.” Miran’s term expires in January, and it is unclear whether he will move to the Fed permanently.
Coming back to Schmid, he published his dissenting opinion a few minutes ago, and this is important for us to understand why 7 out of 19 members do not want a rate cut in 2026. The Fed is significantly divided, and if it stays that way, we could see very limited easing in 2026. Schmid In summary he said:
“In my view, not much has changed since the Federal Open Market Committee meeting just six weeks ago. The government is back in action and official data, although still incomplete, has started to slowly increase. However, based on the data we have and conversations with my contacts in my district, there has been no fundamental change in my views on the economy compared to October. Inflation remains very high, the economy maintains its momentum, and the labor market remains largely stable, although it is trending towards cooling.”
I think the current stance of monetary policy, even if restrictive, is only moderate. With this assessment, I chose to leave the target range of the policy interest rate unchanged at this week’s meeting.
In the short time since the October meeting, I have had the opportunity to tour the 10th District and continue to hear concerns about inflation. My interviews suggest that we are at risk of moving away from a situation where, in the words of former President Alan Greenspan, “inflation is so low and stable over time that it does not play a significant role in the decisions of households and firms.”
Looking back over the past few decades, one of the greatest economic policy successes for the Fed, the country, and perhaps the world has been the easing of inflation concerns. This reduction has produced real results, providing greater certainty and better planning. Analysis shows that the decline in perceived inflation risk has been a significant contributor to the downward trend in long-term interest rates in recent decades. Any increase in inflation uncertainty could unfortunately reverse some of these gains and increase long-term interest rates, including on U.S. government debt. I believe our credibility on inflation is still intact, but I don’t think we should be complacent.
Ultimately, I will judge the restrictiveness of monetary policy based on how the economy is developing, both in the data and from what I hear from my contacts. “Right now, I see an accelerating economy and extremely high inflation, which suggests that policy is not overly restrictive.” – Source
