Andrew Gault, who has been investing in deep technology and quantum hardware for many years, stated that the focus on the quantum computer threat in the cryptocurrency industry is at the wrong point. As Gault emphasized, the real risk to Bitcoin and other digital assets is not just the breaking of wallet keys; hidden in encrypted message traffic between exchanges, bridges and custody services.
“Collect Now, Solve Later” Strategy
Andrew Gault, CEO of ZeroTier, stated that the most serious vulnerability of the current financial system lies in the data transferred between institutions in real time. According to him, encrypted messages and authentication records are being collected by advanced attackers who want to access this data in the future, even if they cannot read it now.
This new threat model that Gault drew attention to is known in cryptography circles as “harvest now, decrypt later”. In other words, attackers collect data that they cannot decrypt today and store it to decrypt in the future when they have a more powerful quantum computer.
“The authentication records currently collected are not just sensitive information; they are documents that prove who owns what, who approved which transaction, and who has legal liability,” Gault said.
Industry’s Approach to Quantum Threat
The research published by Google a while ago revealed that with a sufficiently advanced quantum computer, private keys from Bitcoin’s public keys can be obtained in as little as nine minutes. Following the research, it began to be discussed that approximately 6.9 million BTC was waiting in public addresses and that Bitcoin had not yet prepared a full “post-quantum” migration plan.
Google security engineers also acted in the same direction, directing the internal threat model to strengthen digital signatures and authentication infrastructure. In the latest security note published by the company, it was stated that the post-quantum cryptography transition is aimed to be completed by 2029.
Not only Bitcoin, but also major cryptocurrency exchanges and custody service providers have not yet shared a clear roadmap on their signing infrastructure. In contrast, Ethereum has been noted to have initiated some community-led post-quantum migration moves.
Mini dictionary: Post-quantum cryptography is an encryption approach that aims to keep data secure in the future, developed with the prediction that quantum computers will have the power to surpass classical encryption methods.
Millions of Dollars of Economic Risk
It has been modeled by Citi that if one of the five largest banks in the USA were to suffer a possible quantum attack, there could be a chain loss in the economy between 2 and 3.3 trillion dollars. The Global Risk Institute, on the other hand, estimated the probability of a quantum computer related to cryptography by 2034 to be between 19 and 34 percent.
| Sector/Concept | Post-Quantum Transition Plan | Critical Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | Not Ready | Public addresses, signature traffic |
| Ethereum | Transition Started | technical difficulties |
| Major Exchanges/Custodians | No Public Plans | Authentication and signature records |
| Banking System | Planned (2029) | Payment system access |
As can be seen in this table, there are areas in the sector for which no comprehensive preparation has been made yet. According to CoinShares’ analysis, concerns about wallet key risks may be exaggerated; Because the amount that will affect the market if the private keys are solved is limited to less than 10 thousand BTC. But Gault and some risk analysts agree that the real danger lies at the authentication and signing layer.
