Bitcoin’s recent slide has many traders bracing for a deeper crash. A closer look at time cycles and long-term price patterns points to a more measured outcome: a higher low in the coming weeks, followed by the next rally.
According to an analyst, time-based signals and price levels now point in the same direction, and one date stands out.
Bitcoin’s Price Has Followed A Steady Path For 15 Years
Since its October 2011 low of $2.22, Bitcoin has gained an average of just under 6% a month. Projecting that growth rate across a 30-year chart places Bitcoin’s midpoint at about $79,700 in November 2026, almost exactly where the price is trading now.
This is not a mystery formula. It is compound growth. The same analysis also warns that many popular “geometry” charts on social media are drawn to fit past prices after the fact.
A Three-Year Cycle Points To A Low Now
A cycle-detection tool, applied to Bitcoin’s monthly data since 2013, found that the strongest repeating cycle lasts about 43 months, or 187 weeks. That matches the cycle many traders already follow.
Within that cycle:
- All four major Bitcoin tops came in the upper half of the cycle
- The bear market lows of 2018, 2022 and July 2026 all came in the lower half
- The cycle is bottoming now, in November and December
At the previous three cycle lows, in 2016, 2019 and 2023, Bitcoin made a higher low each time and never fell below its bear market bottom.
Why The July Low May Be The Real Bottom
Bitcoin bottomed at $57,700 in July and is still about 30% above that level. One long-running signal suggests the July low was the true bear market bottom.
After the 2013, 2017 and 2021 peaks, a line falling 6% a month from each top was only broken on a monthly close after the bear market had bottomed. At the end of August 2026, Bitcoin closed above the line drawn from its 2025 peak for the first time.
Bitcoin Is Repeating Its 2023 Pattern
The setup closely matches what happened in 2023:
- 2022 to 2023: Bitcoin bottomed near $15,500, rallied 63% in 87 days, then pulled back to a higher low of $19,569 on March 10, 2023.
- 2026: Bitcoin bottomed at $57,700 in July, rallied 51% in 82 days, and is now testing the same 0.382 fan line. Its November 6 low came within 1% of it.
November 11 Is The Date To Watch
Two separate Fibonacci time counts land on the same day:
- 0.618 of the 82-day rally, counted from the September high, points to November 11
- 0.382 of the full 2022 to 2025 bull market, counted from the October 2025 peak, also points to November 11
On that date, the 0.382 fan line sits near $74,600. The next key date is December 12, in the middle of the cycle’s low window.
How Low Could Bitcoin Go?
If the $74,600 level gives way, several methods point to the same area near $68,000:
- The next Fibonacci fan line: about $67,700 on November 11 and $70,200 on December 12
- A 23% pullback, the same depth as in 2023: about $67,700
- A harmonic “bat” pattern: about $68,200 or lower, but not below $61,100
Deeper still, several more levels sit between $63,600 and $64,700, including the most heavily traded price of the year, near $64,300. A clean break below that area would make a higher low less likely.
Bitcoin Price Levels To Watch
- Short-term resistance: $77,100 to $79,600. A break above $79,600 would ease the pressure.
- Main support zone: $63,300 to $74,800
- Floor of the zone: about $63,600 to $64,700
- Possible next rally target: about $118,500, if the bat pattern completes
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