With the November 3 U.S. midterm elections just one day away, investors are watching how the results could affect Bitcoin and the wider crypto market. A change in congressional control could also shape the future of crypto regulation.
Bitcoin is trading near $78,299, up 0.79% over 24 hours, but remains under pressure after falling 7.3% in October.
Bitcoin’s Historical Midterm Pattern Raises 30% Correction Risks
Bitcoin’s history around U.S. midterm elections has not been positive for investors. Bitcoin tends to fall ahead of all four previous U.S. midterm elections since 2010.
Before previous elections, BTC recorded major declines, falling over 48% in 2014, 37% in 2018, and 16% in 2022. As of now, Bitcoin is already down 7.3% ahead of the November 3, 2026, election.
Well-known crypto chart analyst Ali Martinez expects another decline, with a potential correction of around 30%. This could bring the $57,000 level back into focus.
Why the U.S. Midterm Elections Matter for Bitcoin
The election will determine control of the House of Representatives and Senate, influencing which lawmakers lead key financial committees and shape future cryptocurrency legislation.
The CLARITY Act is one example. It failed to pass the Senate on September 15, receiving 50 votes in favour and 49 against. The bill needed 60 votes to move forward.
A Republican-controlled Congress could bring back the support for the crypto industry’s plans for clearer rules.
The election result will also affect crypto policy and oversight by regulators such as the SEC and CFTC.
According to the Public Citizen Research report, the crypto industry has also spent more than $206 million on the 2026 U.S. midterm elections.
Survey Shows How Election Results Could Affect Bitcoin
A Bloomberg survey of 301 market participants asked where they expect Bitcoin to end the year under three possible outcomes.
43% expect Bitcoin to reach $100,000 or less, while 29% expect it to rise above $100,000.
55% expect Bitcoin to fall to between $60,000 and its current level, while 16% expect it to drop below $60,000.
40% expect Bitcoin to reach $100,000 or less, while 42% expect it to fall to between $60,000 and its current level.
Meanwhile, traders on prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi give Democrats a 73% chance of winning the Senate and a 94% chance of taking control of the House.
Will Bitcoin Rally After the November 3 Election?
Bitcoin is currently attempting to recover after a difficult October. Its price has climbed to $78,299, while 24-hour trading volume has increased 41% to $15.11 billion.
Regardless of which party wins, Bitcoin has generally performed better in the months following the vote. Bitcoin has gained an average of 53.7% in the 12 months following past midterm elections.
For now, BTC needs to hold the 77,000 support zone and reclaim $79,100 to strengthen its short-term outlook. A break below $75,000 would weaken the recovery setup and put $72,000 back in focus.
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