While Bitcoin is trading around $64,500, short-term technical indicators point to a recovery effort, but a cautious outlook regarding market direction remains. The price is stuck between strong resistance areas above and critical support levels below.
In the short term, the $65,600 level stands out
Multiple analysts consider $65,600 to be one of the most critical thresholds for Bitcoin in the short term. Quantitative trader KillaXBT states that the price is testing the weekly opening level of $63,700, and if this area cannot be maintained, a lower top may be formed and then a new retreat towards $60,000 may occur.
KillaXBT emphasizes that liquidity above $64,800 is attracting attention, so a sweep towards $65,600 remains on the table before a meaningful reversal.
According to the analyst, the accumulated liquidity above $64,800 increases the possibility of the price making an upward move first. DeepanshuBTC also points out that the resistance around $64,700 on the four-hour chart has been tested repeatedly, while a new liquidity cluster has formed near $65,600. This structure keeps the risk of a reverse movement on the agenda after the resistance is overcome for a short time.
| Level | Meaning |
|---|---|
| $63,700 | Weekly opening and short term defensive zone |
| $64,800 | Area with liquidity accumulation on it |
| $65,600 | The most critical resistance zone in the short term |
| $60,000 | Psychological major support level |
On-chain data points to a bottom formation
Besides short-term price movements, on-chain data offers a more constructive picture. CryptoQuant, a platform that provides on-chain data and analysis services for the crypto market, defines the current cycle as a burden transfer from short-term investors to long-term investors.
Mini dictionary: aNUPL is an on-chain indicator that shows the adjusted unrealized profit and loss ratio. It is used to monitor at what stage the profit or loss on paper in the assets held by investors is concentrated in the market.
The company’s aNUPL data shows that Bitcoin dropped from around $120,000 in late 2025 to around $60,000 in 2026. On the other hand, the losses of short-term investors have become increasingly limited in successive declines, indicating that the selling pressure has been absorbed by stronger buyers.
CryptoQuant assesses that for confirmation of a permanent market bottom, short-term investor profitability must approach the neutral zone and long-term investor profitability must also stabilize.
$68,200 target is monitored in the technical outlook
In the medium-term technical outlook, the constructive scenario is maintained according to Elliott Wave analysis. It is reported that the five-wave rise that occurred after the June 25 bottom level extended to $64,735, and then entered the correction phase. The price moving above the previous wave top indicates that the current upward sequence is continuing.
Based on the Fibonacci extension levels, the next upside target lies between $68,200 and $72,700. For this scenario to remain valid, it must stay above the $57,576 level. In case of possible pullbacks, buyers are expected to re-engage in limited corrections.
Indicators are balanced, major supports are closely watched
TradingView data produces a neutral signal for the overall outlook. The total chart includes 10 buy, 8 neutral and 8 sell signals. While RSI displays a balanced appearance at 54, MACD gives a buy signal. On the other hand, the Stochastic indicator being at 85 indicates a chart close to the overbought zone. Since ADX remains at 24, trend strength is considered weak.
While short-term moving averages continue to support buyers, longer-term averages still point to pressure. Bitcoin remains below the 50-day exponential moving average at $65,084 and the 100-day average at $68,464. The 200-day averages are above $73,000.
From a technical perspective, $63,515 stands out as the main pivot level, with initial resistance near $65,000 and stronger resistance near $69,000. Below, the range between $62,000 and $63,000 is watched as the first support zone. If there is a permanent drop below this area, the liquidity zone around $ 61,000 and then $ 60,000 may come to the fore again.
