According to QCP Capital’s latest market assessment, Bitcoin remains below $66,000 despite the recovery in global risk appetite. The company stated that behind this weak trend are concerns that Strategy may have to sell more Bitcoin in the future to meet its dividend obligations.
Macro optimism was not reflected in Bitcoin
Following the developments over the weekend that a memorandum of understanding was reached between the USA and Iran, risk appetite gained strength in global markets. It was reported that the agreement in question supports the expectation that the conflict can calm down and the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened.
Under this outlook, S&P futures rose more than 100 points above Friday’s close and tested above record levels. The price of crude oil fell below 75 dollars. A pricing trend came to the fore in the markets that the risk of permanent disruption in energy supply has decreased.
QCP Capital evaluated that although the risks related to the energy market have eased, Bitcoin is stuck below 66 thousand dollars, and concerns that Strategy may sell additional Bitcoin for dividend payments are effective in this.
In contrast, Bitcoin did not accompany the rise in stocks and other risky assets. QCP Capital emphasized that BTC remained weak compared to the broader market rally. According to the company, the most important element in this separation was the uncertainty directly related to Strategy.
Strategy’s steps are being closely monitored
Known for its Bitcoin-focused balance sheet strategy, Strategy stands out as a US-based software and treasury management company, previously known as MicroStrategy. After buying back $1.5 billion of its convertible senior bonds due in 2029, the company raised approximately $200 million by selling MSTR shares and used this income to buy Bitcoin again.
This step increased the company’s cash retention period for dividend payments to approximately 7.5 months, according to QCP Capital. However, market players are carefully watching what this period is still limited and what new capital moves may mean on Bitcoin supply.
| Title | Data |
|---|---|
| bitcoin level | Below 66 thousand dollars |
| bond buyback | $1.5 billion |
| Funds obtained from share sales | Approximately 200 million dollars |
| Dividend payment period | Approximately 7.5 months |
QCP Capital noted that the current concern is not just due to today’s cash position, and that next steps may be discussed further if the share issuance slows down or the Bitcoin price declines. Therefore, the possibility that Strategy may eventually turn to the sale of BTC to meet its obligations continues to weigh on the market.
QCP Capital stated that if Strategy continues to extend its cash period through share sales, this pressure may ease over time, and if the market is convinced that its dividend obligations are secured, macro optimism may be more clearly reflected in the Bitcoin price.
Uncertainty came to the fore on the Fed front
On the other hand, the US Federal Reserve was also in the focus of the markets. The news stated that Fed President Kevin Warsh inherited a difficult situation in his first term in office and annual inflation rose to 4.2 percent, its highest level in the last three years.
While the markets were pricing in a total interest rate increase of 0.5 points for 2026, published Dot Plot data and signals regarding whether the tight monetary policy would be maintained were closely watched. According to QCP Capital, Bitcoin may have difficulty making a strong move in the same direction as the broader market rally without overcoming this company-specific pressure for now.
