Although Bitcoin showed a sharp recovery in the first days of July, a cautious wait continues as to whether the rise in the market indicates a permanent trend transformation. After hitting $58,000 on July 1, BTC rose to $64,657 on July 6, according to Bitstamp data. However, after this rise, it retreated again and fell to $ 62,417 on July 8.
Holding on despite pressure on stocks
This move coincided with a weakening in US stock markets. While the S&P 500 fell 0.6 percent, the Nasdaq 100 fell 2.1 percent. Chip makers in particular were at the center of the selling pressure, with Micron Technology shares losing more than 9 percent.
It was noteworthy that Bitcoin did not experience a deeper decline. One possible support factor for the market has been capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US. These funds recorded net inflows for the third consecutive trading day. Spot Bitcoin ETFs are known as exchange-traded funds that provide investors with access to price movement without holding Bitcoin directly.
Bitcoin’s hold around $63,000 stood out despite the weakness in US technology stocks. In previous periods, BTC has often declined along with the broader market during phases when risk appetite deteriorated.
This time, it is considered that demand from ETFs may have softened the selling pressure to some extent. Especially in periods when short-term investors react quickly to volatility in the stock market, regular fund inflows can become a price stabilizing factor.
Critical threshold in technical view
However, the picture is not clear yet. Bitcoin has rebounded from the recent low, but has not confirmed a full bullish reversal. Therefore, market participants are focusing on whether BTC can maintain current levels and re-establish momentum above its recent high.
John Bollinger, developer of the Bollinger Bands indicator, said that Bitcoin is currently at a critical threshold. Bollinger pointed out that a W-shaped reversal formation may occur on the daily chart.
Mini dictionary: W formation refers to the technical structure in which the price gives an upward reversal signal after making two bottoms. In technical analysis, this view is viewed as confirmation of a trend change if the upward movement becomes stronger after the second bottom.
John Bollinger emphasizes that bullish setups are broken in bear markets, and bearish setups are invalidated in bull markets. According to him, if the W formation on the daily chart is confirmed, this can be considered a sign of trend transformation.
The focus of analysts is the 63 thousand dollar region
The next few sessions therefore became even more important. If the formation in question is confirmed, the expectation of moving to higher levels may become stronger. Otherwise, Bitcoin may remain vulnerable to a new downward wave.
Cryptocurrency analyst Michaël van de Poppe also thinks that the current market structure may be approaching the final part of its decline phase. Van de Poppe lists the limited impact of positive news on the price, the significant deterioration in market sentiment, and the fact that some investors switched from bullish to bearish expectations among the signs that support his view.
According to the analyst, negative narratives such as concerns about customs tariffs, geopolitical tensions, pressure created by artificial intelligence-themed transactions and the general tendency to avoid risk come to the fore in the market. Despite this, the fact that Bitcoin continues to remain around 63 thousand dollars weakens the expectation of a forced withdrawal to the 30 thousand to 40 thousand dollar band for now.
