Bitcoin is trading around the 200-week simple moving average, which is a critical technical threshold. While this level points to around $61,300, it is closely watched due to its overlap with major market bottoms in past cycles. As price volatility narrowed, market participants focused on whether this zone could be maintained.
Critical threshold in technical view
Bitcoin’s 200-week simple moving average has aligned with major cycle bottoms seen in 2015, 2018 and 2022, according to analyst VirtualBacon. Therefore, the area around $61,300 stands out as an important reference point in evaluating the long-term market structure.
VirtualBacon noted that Bitcoin’s 200-week simple moving average, rather than its exponential, has historically marked cycle bottoms, so the current level is seen as particularly important from a technical perspective.
In contrast, Bitcoin fell below the 50-week moving average at weekly closes. This development points to a loss of momentum in the shorter and medium-term outlook. In the analysis, it was stated that such breaks clarified the distinction between bullish periods and weak market conditions in the past.
Mini dictionary: The 200-week simple moving average is a long-term technical indicator that shows the average of the closing prices of an asset over the last 200 weeks. It is used to monitor the main direction of the market as it smoothes out short-term fluctuations.
On the macroeconomic side, tight monetary policy and changes in interest rate expectations continue to put pressure on risky assets. In the evaluation, the opinion was shared that the current retreat was not due to a single major structural break, but to broader pressures.
Support and resistance zones
While $69,000 stands out as the previous resistance zone in the possible upward recovery, the $76,000 level is watched above it. In the downside scenario, if it falls below $61,000, $53,600 may come to the fore. This level corresponds to the realized cost base of the network. According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin was traded at $62,867.37 at the time of writing. The daily transaction volume was approximately 29.6 billion dollars.
On-chain data points to network usage
While price pressure continues, on-chain data shows network activity remains buoyant. According to data shared by Darkfost, the number of UTXOs formed in the Bitcoin network has exceeded 3.77 billion since the beginning of the network. This data indicates that users continue to generate transactions on the network.
Mini dictionary: UTXO stands for unspent transaction output. It refers to the unused parts of assets sent on the Bitcoin network and is considered one of the main indicators for monitoring transaction activity on the network.
Darkfost emphasized that the increase in blockchain usage continues despite difficult market periods, which is an indicator that should be taken into consideration in adoption and usage discussions.
Total UTXO production in the last down cycle was just over 2 billion. The current level of 3.77 billion indicates a significant increase compared to previous periods. The data reveals that although the price structure has weakened, there has been no serious pause in network usage.
