Ethereum is seeking direction in the $1,800 region following a recovery from late-June lows. While ETH has been hovering around $1,780 in recent trading, it seems that buyers are trying to reclaim the high-volume resistance area. Although the short-term outlook has improved compared to previous days, it cannot be said that the rise has been confirmed on a wider scale yet.
The $1,800 region stands out
According to on-chain price distribution data, approximately 4.30 million ETH changed hands around $1,800. This intense transaction history turns the region in question into a strong supply area. If ETH exceeds this level permanently, the levels of $ 1,980 and $ 2,079 can be watched as new targets. On the other hand, in case of rejection, the downside gap may become more evident and the $1,237 area may emerge as the next major support.
CryptoQuant analyst Moreno states that the latest recovery is not structurally supported by large investors, and that for a healthier outlook, stock market reserves should remain horizontal or decline and whale-sized orders should be seen again.
On the technical side, the 50-day exponential moving average is near $1,806 and is viewed as one of the main thresholds that creates pressure in the short term. The 100-day exponential moving average is around $1,970. This indicates that the medium-term recovery has not yet gained full strength.
Mini dictionary: UTXO Realized Price Distribution is an on-chain measurement that shows how much assets change hands at different price levels. This data is used to understand in which regions cost accumulation is occurring and possible areas of support or resistance.
On the daily chart, the relative strength index is at 57. Although this outlook indicates an improvement in momentum, it does not by itself provide strong bullish confirmation. The increase of the stochastic indicator to the level of 86 suggests that the movement may become somewhat tired in the short term.
Supports and upside targets
Initial support lies at $1,741, while the 20-day exponential moving average is located around $1,713. If the selling pressure increases, the $1,524 and $1,405 levels are followed as deeper supports. In case of a sharper pullback, the $1,156 region may come to the fore again.
| Level type | Area |
|---|---|
| main resistor | $1,800 |
| Short term threshold | $1,806 |
| up targets | $1,980 and $2,079 |
| first supports | $1,741 and $1,713 |
If demand strengthens and ETH produces closes above $1,806, $1,909, 2,018, 2,108, and $2,211 are among other upside areas to watch.
Stock exchange reserves increased, demand remained selective
The increase in Binance reserves since the end of June created a cautious picture regarding the possibility of additional supply in the market. ETH reserves on the exchange increased from 3.64 million to 3.87 million. This means approximately 221 thousand ETH and a 6.1 percent increase. Binance is among the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges in terms of transaction volume.
CryptoQuant data indicates that the average order size has moved into a region where whale participation is weakening. This outlook suggests that the influence of large investors on the market has been limited during the recent recovery. While there is more ETH on the exchange, the fact that high-volume purchases do not return strongly makes breakout attempts around $ 1,800 more sensitive.
Even though the data in the derivatives market has improved, open positions remain flat, indicating that the recent ETH recovery is not predominantly leverage-driven.
As the net buyer volume in derivative markets turned positive after June 28, ETH rose by approximately 14 percent. By contrast, open interest remained largely flat throughout the recovery. There was no sharp increase in the estimated leverage ratio after the June decrease. This chart reveals that the rise was not driven by overleveraged long positions.
Although this limits the risk of a large-scale long squeeze, it shows that investors remain cautious. For a healthier trend, spot demand needs to strengthen and large investor participation needs to increase. Three consecutive days of net inflows in US spot ETH ETFs provided limited support to market sentiment.
