Ethereum recently crashed below the $2,000 level and retreated towards a critical support area in the market. The price faced downward pressure, especially after the rejection from the 200-week moving average at $2,471. At this point, analysts state that Ethereum maintaining its long-term rising support line is the key to the potential rise expected in the future.
Is the Five-Year Squeeze Over?
According to technical analysis shared on social media platform X, Ethereum is nearing the end of a nearly five-year consolidation period on the weekly chart. In the scenario explained by Analyst Rod, the price appears to complete an ABC correction within a broad Elliott Wave structure. It is predicted that the recovery after the bottom was made in 2022 and the new decline wave that followed may continue until the 2025-2026 period.
On Rod’s chart, the last bearish move is marked as the last leg of the correction process (wave C), and this zone lies on a long-term support line that has been operating since 2022. This support is critical for the price to hold on against downward movements.
Analysts opined that “If Ethereum can maintain this rising support, it may be possible for the structure to break upwards and initiate a move to at least $7,000.”
On the other hand, it is stated that if this support line is lost, the horizontal movement that has been going on for five years on a weekly basis will weaken.
Mini dictionary: Elliott Wave Theory is a technical analysis method that suggests that price movements in financial markets occur in certain wave structures. This theory is especially used to identify long-term trends and correction phases.
Critical Support $1,742
As another technical expert PeloSwing points out, Ethereum price is rapidly approaching the long-term support trend at $1,742 after falling below $2,000. Especially since 2023, this trend line has formed an important basis for the price.
Ethereum failed to surpass the 200-week moving average at $2,471 and again failed to breach the horizontal resistance at $2,116. For now, the price is being watched closely to see if it can react from the trend line at $1,742.
In the technical outlook, it is thought that if the current support can be maintained, the price may target resistances again at $2,116 and then $2,471. Otherwise, in case the trend line is broken, the next support levels for Ethereum are $1,383 and $1,071.
| Level | Reason for Seeing | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Nearest short term resistance | horizontal resistance | 2,116 |
| 200 weeks MA | long term resistance | 2,471 |
| Critical support trend | Rising long-term support | 1,742 |
| lower support | Previous bottom area | 1,383 |
| lower support | Previous bottom area | 1,071 |
Market Balance and RSI Indicator
Analysts state that the RSI indicator is also close to the bottom region on a weekly basis. This shows that the upward momentum in Ethereum has weakened and the market is in an important decision phase.
In summary, this movement in Ethereum price will depend on what role the long-term support trend that has been running since 2022 will play on the buy side. If it stays above the support, new recoveries may occur; However, if it breaks, the price is expected to move to deeper levels.
