Bitcoin fell below critical support levels and tested the bottom areas in February. While the price action shows that sellers remain dominant in the market, analysts are watching to see whether excessively negative positioning will pave the way for a sharp reaction rise.
Long-term support zone comes to the fore
According to analyst SuperBitcoinBro, Bitcoin made a weekly close just below its 200-week simple moving average. However, the price remains above the long-term ascending trend line connecting the 2022 and 2023 cycle bottoms. This intersection area is considered an important support zone in terms of technical outlook.
In the analysis, it was stated that Bitcoin retested the long-term decline line that it had previously broken up, this time as support, and that this structure was closely monitored in larger trend changes.
The current structure is compared to the market bottom formed after the FTX crash at the end of 2022. At that time, after breaking the long-lasting downward trend, Bitcoin returned to the breakout zone and a broader recovery attempt was made. This similarity has led to more careful technical monitoring of current levels.
There was also a remarkable appearance on the RSI side, known as the Relative Strength Index. If the indicator produces higher lows as the price tests lower levels, it may indicate that the downside momentum is weakening compared to previous declines.
Mini dictionary: RSI is a technical indicator that measures the speed and strength of price movement. Bullish divergence, on the other hand, refers to the situation where the indicator produces stronger bottoms as the price declines and may indicate that the selling pressure has weakened.
Below 60 thousand dollars was watched in the short term
According to analyst Kaz’s assessment, Bitcoin first lost the support around 63 thousand dollars, then fell below 60 thousand dollars and swept the February bottoms. The area, which appeared to be the balance zone at the first stage, could not be maintained and the selling pressure deepened with a new wave.
Data in derivative markets also pointed to a weakening. The total amount of open interest decreased during the decline, indicating that investors closed positions as the price fell. The cumulative volume delta in perpetual futures has also broken down; This picture suggested that aggressive sales came to the fore on the derivative side.
The pressure also continued on the spot market. While spot volume flow turned significantly negative, the pace of sales appeared to plateau rather than increase. In addition, liquidation data showed that long position holders who were expecting a recovery after previous declines were once again removed from the market.
| Indicator | The current situation |
|---|---|
| Price | Tested below 60 thousand dollars |
| open position | showed a downward trend |
| Perps CVD | Pointed to selling pressure |
| Spot CVD | It remained in extremely negative territory |
The 62 thousand dollar level is seen as critical for a possible reaction
According to Kaz, although the current structure favors sellers in the short term, overpositioning can pave the way for strong directional changes. In the analysis, it was stated that if the $62,000 region is regained, newly opened short positions may be squeezed and the price may head towards the next important resistance area around $68,200.
In Kaz’s assessment, it was emphasized that heavy long position liquidations, futures positioning approaching extreme levels and deep negative spot flows are increasingly bringing the market closer to a possible reaction rally.
For now, the outlook indicates that sellers are maintaining control. Despite this, whether Bitcoin can hold on to the long-term trend line and reclaim the area around $62,000 will be decisive in the direction of the upcoming move.
