Bitcoin has crashed 13% in seven days and the market wants to know where the floor is. Analyst Gareth Soloway was asked about it and he gave an answer covering four distinct price levels depending on how the next few weeks play out.
The short version is a minor bounce is possible around $65,500, a retest of $60,000 is likely, and if that breaks the conversation shifts to $50,000 and potentially lower.
The Bearish Flag Nobody Wants to Talk About
Bitcoin is forming a textbook bearish flag. A move lower followed by sideways choppy price action inside a narrow range. The pattern mirrors what played out from the all-time highs earlier this year and historically bearish flags resolve to the downside.
“It is very rare when you get a bearish flag that you do not at least test the low of that move to the downside,” he said.
The Four Levels
$65,500: The first minor technical area based on a series of pivot lows. A small relief bounce is possible here but Soloway describes it as a minor level rather than important support.
$60,000: The big test. Whether Bitcoin holds or breaks $60,000 will define medium-term direction. Soloway expects a retest of this level regardless of any short-term bounce.
$50,000: If $60,000 breaks the next support sits around $48,000 to $49,000. A break below the round $50,000 number would carry significant psychological weight beyond the technical implications.
$35,000: The worst case derived from the head and shoulders pattern on the higher timeframe chart. Soloway said he is hopeful this does not fully play out but it remains on the table if the larger pattern completes.
The MicroStrategy Question
The conversation turned to Michael Saylor after Strategy disclosed its first Bitcoin sale in three and a half years. The sale was small but the symbolism was significant.
A small sale is manageable. A billion-dollar sale would be a different situation entirely. Strategy currently holds approximately $63 billion in Bitcoin accumulated at an average price of around $75,000, well above current levels.
“If he ever has to liquidate he will seriously hurt Bitcoin for all of us,” Soloway said. “He has put himself in a position where if margin call type scenarios ever come into play that could be cataclysmic.”
Strategy’s stock has a critical trend line around $105 per share. A break below that level would imply Bitcoin at $60,000 and approaching $50,000 simultaneously.
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