Crypto market maker Wintermute reported that long-term funds have gradually started purchasing Bitcoin through over-the-counter transactions. According to the company’s market assessment dated June 1, these buyers see Bitcoin’s levels around $72,000 as attractive in an 18-month perspective.
Quiet accumulation in the over-the-counter market
In Wintermute’s weekly update, it was stated that funds with a longer-term view entered the market through OTC desks. Accordingly, purchases are not made with large orders at once, but in segmented transactions in order not to directly affect the price.
Mini dictionary: OTC, that is, over-the-counter market, refers to the structure in which transactions are carried out directly between the parties outside the exchange order book. TWAP, on the other hand, is a trading method that aims to execute large orders over time and close to the average price.
Wintermute stated that long-term investors find the current price range attractive in terms of the 18-month outlook and tend to make gradual purchases on OTC desks, without trying to predict the exact bottom level in the market.
The company has positioned the key downside support zone for Bitcoin between $60,000 and $65,000. This range was considered to be one of the bases used by long-term investors when determining position size. Wintermute also noted that the outlook is relatively weak as we enter the summer months, but the current structure resembles a reset process rather than a permanent deterioration.
ETF outflows attracted attention
This accumulation on the OTC side coincided with the outflows seen in exchange-traded funds. There was an outflow of approximately $1.4 billion from spot Bitcoin ETFs in the last week. This series stood out as the longest withdrawal period since the products began trading.
Ethereum ETFs also saw an outflow of approximately $240 million in the same period. The total outflow from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs between May 20 and May 29 reached approximately $2 billion. The news also stated that Strategy, known as the largest institutional Bitcoin investor, started selling in this time period, which put pressure on market sentiment.
Crypto lags behind as stock rally continues
Wintermute noted that crypto assets have been unable to follow the broader risk asset rally for two weeks. According to the company, capital flows were directed towards Nasdaq and Russell 2000 stocks during this period, while the crypto market remained outside this rotation. The S&P 500 index recorded its ninth weekly rise and closed the week with a 1.9 percent increase. Nasdaq rose 8 percent throughout the month.
Wintermute emphasized that the buying appetite that carried Bitcoin from 70 thousand dollars to 80 thousand dollars in April has disappeared, and marginal capital is now concentrated in Nvidia, Dell and small-scale stocks.
The macroeconomic picture was also effective in the divergence. PCE data for April was announced as 3.8 percent in the headline and 3.3 percent in the core. In the bond market, the probability of an interest rate increase before the end of the year is priced between 35 percent and 40 percent. Wintermute pointed out that inflation pressure may be seen along with recession again in the third quarter.
According to the company, stock markets are rising not because the macro outlook has improved, but because the balance sheets of artificial intelligence-themed companies are strong. The lack of a similarly strong narrative in the crypto market makes the sector more open to the same macro pressures. In the near term, CPI and PPI data to be announced on Wednesday and CME Nasdaq crypto index futures to start on Monday were among the headlines to be watched.
