The latest decline in Bitcoin in the cryptocurrency market is associated with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and assessments that Michael Saylor and Strategy have sold some of their assets. However, Into The Cryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen argues that price movements are mainly affected by historical cycles and mathematical structure, not external developments.
Cycle debate comes to the fore again
According to Cowen, the four-year cycle approach, which some circles claim is no longer valid, is again evident in the 2026 outlook. The analyst especially defines the month of June as a period in which the price remained apparently calm, but fundamental weakness deepened.
Into The Cryptoverse stands out as a research platform known for its analysis on on-chain data and market cycles. According to Cowen’s assessment, Bitcoin follows the timing patterns seen in past cycles, this time on a weekly scale.
Benjamin Cowen states that prominent external headlines in the market attract attention, but they often obscure the historical and mathematical order, and the current structure is highly similar to previous cycles.
In this context, the peak of the cycle occurs in October 2025 at the level of $ 126,200, which is 1,162 dollars after the absolute bottom. It is reported that it coincides with the day. Cowen thinks this timing largely overlaps with previous cycles. The sales pressure at the beginning of the year also supports this picture. Bitcoin decreased by 10.1% in January and 14.8% in February. The total recovery of 12% seen in March and April is considered as a temporary relief rather than a permanent strengthening.
The 200-day average is viewed as a critical threshold
According to the analysis, Bitcoin could not maintain permanence above the 200-day simple moving average, which is considered technically important. For this reason, it is stated that the upward trend in the spring did not reverse the main trend, but remained only a short-term movement in the opposite direction.
Cowen states that this recovery lasted 16 weeks and fits into the 15- to 25-week temporary bullish range known as the classic “dead cat bounce.” According to this view, the market may see another selling wave before a real bottom occurs.
June data and the possibility of 60 thousand dollars
Those on the optimistic side point to Bitcoin’s average return of 6.91% in June as a positive sign. However, Cowen emphasizes that this average has been inflated with extraordinary increases such as 85.3% in 2011 and 27.1% in 2019, so it should not be considered a healthy indicator on its own.
Looking at historical examples, it is stated that June usually ends with a decline during cyclical correction periods after the global peak. Cowen also says that the June period during the US midterm elections creates a weak window for digital assets. Considered together with the declining trading volume and negative fundamental outlook, there is a high probability of a break below the local low of $60,000 seen in February.
Autumn is pointed out for the real bottom
According to the cyclical return model, September is expected to be difficult after the pressure in the summer months. In Cowen’s scenario, the final bottom of the current four-year cycle is predicted to occur between October and November 2026.
It is stated that at this stage, Bitcoin may have largely exhausted its downward movement area and may lay the groundwork for the next large-scale uptrend. However, this outlook is modeling based on historical similarities and may change depending on market conditions.
