Bitcoin has reached a notable threshold in the current market cycle. On-chain data showed that the amount of BTC held in loss exceeded the amount of BTC in profit. Ali Charts shared that the cost of approximately 10.45 million BTC remained above the current price, while 9.60 million BTC was still in profit.
Rare threshold in on-chain data
This chart indicates that for the first time in the ongoing cycle, the supply at a loss exceeded the supply at a profit. In past market cycles, similar crossovers have often been seen near the bottoms of bear markets.
Ali Charts evaluates that this intersection, which emerged in June 2026, continues and Bitcoin is in the strong accumulation zone.
Data reveals that the recent price decline has put pressure on investors who entered the market more recently. However, in previous cycles, similar periods coincided with phases in which long-term investors made gradual purchases.
Mini dictionary: On-chain data refers to wallet, transaction and cost-based indicators that can be directly tracked on the blockchain. Whether the supply is in profit or loss is calculated based on whether the price at which the coins were last moved or purchased in the market is below or above the current market price.
Ali Charts stated that such signals have been seen in limited numbers in Bitcoin’s 15-year history. Similar intersections were recorded in 2011, 2014, 2018 and March 2020. After these periods, the market recovered, but the duration of the recovery was not the same each time and in some cases lasted up to a year.
| Indicator | Level |
|---|---|
| BTC supply at loss | 10.45 million BTC |
| BTC supply in profit | 9.60 million BTC |
| Period when the signal was last seen | June 2026 |
Glassnode calculation and price structure
Glassnode creates this metric by comparing the cost base of coins in circulation with the market price of Bitcoin. Coins purchased below the market price are classified as supply at profit, while coins purchased at above market price are classified as supply at loss.
These indicators track closely with Bitcoin’s historical market cycles. During periods of rise, the profit supply expands while the loss supply decreases. In a downward trend, the opposite happens. It is also noteworthy that despite the last correction, a significant part of the total supply is still in profit.
Support zone stands out in the technical view
Crypto Patel, on the other hand, states that the longer-term technical structure is still preserved. According to the analyst, Bitcoin has been moving in a wide parallel channel since 2015, and its price structure in the last month is also monitored within this framework.
Crypto Patel emphasizes that after the peak of $ 112,000 in 2025, Bitcoin fell to $ 59,300, but remained above the critical support zone.
On the chart, the $36,000 to $44,000 range stands out as the main accumulation zone based on the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels. It is evaluated that if this area is maintained, the long-term upward structure may continue to be valid, and if it breaks downwards, the risk of a sharper retreat towards lower Fibonacci levels may increase.
