It can even be said throughout your trading life, because if you can understand today, what today is like, you will have the opportunity to understand every day. Bitcoin is down today, and it’s no surprise to experienced investors. On the contrary, it was the expected scenario. So, what data and information tell us about today?
What was crypto, what happened and what will happen?
Big things will happen all the time and you will never see the agenda remaining completely calm. It was clear that many things would change on a global scale, especially after the tariff adventure that started last year. And it has changed. There will be more, and what we call the normalization of the abnormal since the pandemic will become our much more normal.
When we look at the current situation today, it is possible to explain our situation with a few items.
- Geopolitical risks are evident, and after Maduro’s kidnapping from his country, Trump suddenly feels empowered to do the same for Cuba or other states. And it can. It is very difficult to draw a limit on what the US administration can do after claiming rights over Greenland and standing up even to the EU. And today’s topic is Iran. In the case of Iran, no agreement is foreseen in the short term, and when the demands and the answers given are put on two sides of the scale, there seems to be no solution other than a devastating war.
- The USA is now unpredictable. This is one of the things we call the normalization of the abnormal today. This is exactly why an asset like Bitcoin, which is “risk-sensitive and tends to act risk-oriented”, cannot be expected to show stable performance. So what will happen? Volatility will continue strongly.
- Global inflation is on an irreversible path with the increase in oil prices. While the US is now returning to 2022 levels in many metrics, data tells us that we may now see interest rate increases. Moreover, the oil facilities that were hit say that production will not be restored before a few quarters. UAE Leaving OPEC and producers producing at the maximum level, at least with the “temporary period” narrative, can curb the problem here, but it cannot stop it. Since the increase in core inflation now shows that sticky inflation is growing again, the story of monetary easing and growth in risk markets seems to be over.
- of Bitcoin In the days when he was born, Nakamoto had ideals, goals and dreams. Today, as Bitcoin grew, it became ugly and became a “new asset that prices risk” in the hands of corporates. Now Ethereum nodes are “safe” places with oversight that takes the law seriously. Bitcoin wallets are not that anonymous, with advanced OSINT tools and exchanges’ strong information sharing policies. It seems that crypto will no longer be anything more than the second version of “digital, internet banking” that traditional banking has evolved over the last 10-15 years. All transactions, from bank to stock exchange, from stock exchange to cold wallet, will be much more similar to traditional banking in the future, with the support of artificial intelligence. Of course, in terms of surveillance and control.
- 2017 was the year when those with big stories sold their stories. 2021 was the year investors were made to believe that big stories were starting to become reality. 2024-2025 were years when big stories were not as ambitious as they were told, but became reality with the infrastructure integrations provided to giants such as BlackRock and large financial companies. What follows will be the period when blockchain-based digital finance grows on the back of many public crypto networks. Traditional finance is not bothered by this because crypto has already started to largely resemble them and there is no problem. Therefore, today we are in days when projects with “ambitious stories” and “magnificent demos” are not relevant. That’s why altcoins couldn’t write the desired “altcoin season” story because they couldn’t get the lifeblood they needed in the last cycle. From now on, it does not seem very convincing to expect projects that will see the old days, except for a limited number of projects.
Since experienced investors were aware of this change over the years, they perhaps started to withdraw from altcoins early. While many ghost projects wait for the day they die, there are some projects that can attract a significant portion of shallow liquidity and create excitement. altcoins It contains artificial happiness that resembles oases in the desert.
May 15 BTC drop
Leaving aside all the big talk and long-term predictions in the first episode, BTC has fallen in recent hours due to the selling of US investors. For this we look at Coinbase Premium and CLARITY Although we saw some temporary FOMO, it logically did not last long. ETF Its debut surpassed $800 million in 2 days this week. In other words, we are talking about a visible decline as both US individuals and corporates see the dark clouds and withdraw their hot money from within.
Turkish on-chain analyst @anlcnc1 commented on today’s decline as follows;
“The price increases due to index correlations, futures or news, but as long as the premium remains negative, we can say that the price increases are not full. The recovery in Coinbase premium is important for price permanence, there is no such situation for now.
Bitcoin should not lose the $78K level on a daily basis, both the True Market Mean and the average cost zones for short-term investors. In the previous decline below 79K, the price received a response from the right place as support, now these are the two areas that should act as support when it comes back again. One is passing through 78,200 and the other is at 78,400. If we remove the fractions, 78K is an important region. Daily closings that may fall below create problems because short-termers’ loss again triggers panic sales at their expense, which causes faster withdrawals. As long as the price remains above 78K, short-term investors are in a profit position.”
