Bitcoin is entering the new week at a critical level before the inflation report to be announced in the USA. While we found relatively stronger support in terms of supply and demand before the last two CPI data, this time the possibility of the price falling to 70 thousand dollars came to the fore with the weakening of corporate purchases.
Inflation expectations from Cleveland Fed
The latest “nowcast” forecast of the Cleveland branch of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) predicts that the annual CPI in April will be 3.56 percent. This rate is above the 3.3 percent rate recorded in March. On a monthly basis, the institution expects a 0.45 percent increase for April; In March, this rate was 0.9 percent. Limited increases of 2.56 percent annually and 0.21 percent monthly are expected in the core CPI. Official CPI data for April will be shared on May 12.
This table indicates that inflation may not follow a flat course. Although annual headline inflation has accelerated again, the slowdown in monthly increases and the stability in core inflation are particularly noteworthy.
The impact of corporate acquisitions is decreasing
For assets with high risk appetite, a re-acceleration in inflation may reduce the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates in the near term. This can put pressure on assets such as Bitcoin. However, another noteworthy point is that Bitcoin has not experienced major sales despite the recent hot CPI reports.
Although the figures were above expectations in March, Bitcoin gained more than 15 percent in value. At the time, institutional investors supported the price by purchasing more than 500 percent of the newly issued Bitcoin supply. Strategy company stood out in a significant part of these purchases. Strategy is known as a company that stands out in the corporate investment world with its Bitcoin purchases. But currently, the company has halted new acquisitions and its holdings of STRC preferred stock are trading below their $100 par value.
STRC shares have fallen below their nominal price, making it difficult for Strategy to raise fresh capital by issuing new shares and buy more Bitcoin.
Technical outlook and analyst alerts
From a technical perspective, analysts state that a classic rising wedge formation has formed on the daily chart of Bitcoin. Such structures generally pose a pullback risk equal to the height of the formation if the price breaks the lower trend.
As of Sunday, Bitcoin is close to the peak in the ascending wedge, around $84,000. Analyst Killa stated that if this level is lost, there may be a correction up to 70 thousand dollars, but in an opposite scenario, the speed of the rise may increase.
The main level that the market should hold is $78,600 at the weekly opening; If this is broken, the first support is in the range of 74-75 thousand dollars.
On the other hand, in case of an upward break, that is, if the price rises above both the peak and the 200-day exponential moving average, the range of 90 thousand to 95 thousand dollars stands out as the next target.
Prior to these developments, there are signs that large investors are taking risk-reducing positions before the inflation report is announced. A similar behavior in 2025 has been observed in the past.
