Bitcoin crossed $78,000 on April 17 for the first time since early February, but Arthur Hayes is not ready to call it a recovery. The BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom chief investment officer told Coinpedia that the market is in a relief rally and that sustained upside requires one specific catalyst that has not arrived yet.
“We are going to chop around $60,000 to $90,000 until we get an enormous increase in the pace of central bank money printing, led by the Fed,” Hayes said.
Why the Fed Is the Only Catalyst That Matters
Hayes laid out two scenarios that would force the Fed’s hand. The first is consumer credit deterioration driven by AI-related job losses among knowledge workers, which would create impaired assets on bank balance sheets requiring a bailout.
The second is rising government spending tied to wartime financing needs that the market cannot absorb without printed money.
Until one of those two things happens, Hayes sees limited upside regardless of how the geopolitical situation develops.
“I believe this is a relief rally,” he said when asked whether Bitcoin’s test of important resistance was the beginning of a sustained move. “Until we get a large increase in central bank money printing, there is limited upside, even if the worst of the US-Iran war is over.”
The framing is consistent with his broader thesis that Bitcoin’s price is determined by the quantity of money in the system rather than interest rates or risk sentiment. A relief rally can push prices toward the upper end of the range. Only a genuine expansion of the money supply changes the range itself.
Highest Conviction: Still Bitcoin
Asked which asset in the current top ten commands his highest conviction, Hayes said, “The majority of my wealth is still stored in Bitcoin,” he said. “Out of the top ten, I have the highest conviction in Bitcoin.”
He did not elaborate on his views for Ethereum, Solana or XRP beyond placing Bitcoin clearly at the top of his hierarchy. His long-running position in Hyperliquid, which sits outside the top ten, remains his most notable non-Bitcoin allocation.
Hence, as for now, Bitcoin is up from its February lows and testing resistance for the first time in months. Hayes is watching one number above all others, not the Bitcoin price, but the Fed’s balance sheet.
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