Bitcoin It is over $75,500 and according to the WSJ report, Iran is preparing to send a delegation to Pakistan on Tuesday. The parties try every means, including lies, bluffs and denial, to strengthen their hand in bargaining. All this nonsense is nausea-inducing, as investors tend to take every statement seriously. The negotiation table will probably be established tomorrow, despite all the negative statements. Alright on-chain What does the data say?
Is Bitcoin’s rise real?
For months, every attempt of Bitcoin’s uptrend has made short sellers make money out of thin air at low leverage. Now, investors who think the same thing will happen again are looking for the right entry point for short selling, but BTC It hasn’t moved away from the $78,000 threshold yet, so the bulls haven’t given up.
Maartunn discussed the current situation within the framework of on-chain metrics.
First of all, during the last bottom period, the supply shifted to stronger hands. Since the LTH supply change reached 354 thousand BTC in 30 days, we can say that there is a good structural strengthening for the end of the bear markets.
In just 2 days, Strategy made a massive purchase of $2.66 billion, the largest inflow since November 2024. In those days, Trump won the election.
So, if Strategy alone is making weekly purchases of over $2.5 billion, why is the price not at the desired level? Who is selling?
There are 2 groups;
- STH moved ~60K BTC to exchanges.
- whales
SOPR (below 1) and short-term investors do not avoid selling, even at a loss, depending on the news flow. BTC falls into the hands of investors who think longer term.
The whales in the second article are a large group with assets over 100 BTC. The amount of BTC they sent to exchanges has increased significantly.
What about Bitcoin?
BTC’s STH Realized Price is currently around 83 thousand dollars. In order to stop the sales of STH investors and to increase the appetite of more investors, the price will need to exceed this threshold and reach the safe zone.
So how will this happen? The key price zone was lost due to the war and should be regained with the complete end of the war. But this must happen before the end of the month, as delayed peace will make the pressure on medium-term inflation more permanent. The nightmare of oil falling to $70 levels and below will end as quickly as possible and of BTC It is essential for him to prove that he has truly returned from the bottom.
