Recently, news that quantum computers may pose a threat to the Bitcoin network has attracted attention. In particular, it is claimed that machines developed in the future may overcome the encryption methods used by Bitcoin within minutes or render the entire network dysfunctional. However, academic studies reveal that some current claims are based on unrealistic assumptions.
Quantum algorithms and their impact on Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s security essentially depends on two different mathematical principles. One of them, the Shor algorithm, compromises the security of cryptographic keys. A sufficiently powerful quantum computer can extract a wallet’s private key from its public key; This may lead to the wallet owner’s assets being seized.
The other algorithm is known as Grover. This algorithm, which can theoretically speed up the mining process, can shorten the trial-and-error process that miners do to find new blocks. However, the Grover algorithm’s ability to demonstrate the expected speed advantage in practice is only possible with serious technical and hardware requirements.
A study on the subject published in March 2026 emphasizes that it is practically impossible to apply the Grover algorithm to Bitcoin mining. According to the researchers’ calculations, approximately 10²³ qubits and a 10²⁵ watt power supply are needed to run the algorithm at current difficulty levels. This value is at levels impossible to achieve, approaching the energy production of a star.
Quantum achievements and reality in public opinion
Some news headlines reinforce the perception that quantum computers are already breaking encryption. But an analysis by two academics from universities in Switzerland and New Zealand shows that many claimed successes in this field actually contain misleading experimental constructs.
Researchers determined that in the examples, numbers with very easy prime factors were often chosen, or the complex part of the process was done on the classical computer, while the quantum computer took over the simplest part of the task. They also showed that the “broken” numbers suggested by some studies were capable of being solved in a few seconds using classical methods in history.
The study includes the assessment that “Most of the factorization successes presented in the literature were achieved by manipulating experimental conditions.”
Such “successes” give the public the impression that quantum computers are fast enough to break encryption, but researchers point out that realistic experiments have not yet been conducted on randomly selected numbers, hidden from experts.
The real threat to Bitcoin may arise from wallets at old or reused addresses. Because the key information of these wallets is already in the blockchain and they can become a target with a sufficiently powerful quantum computer. Although recent studies suggest that, in theory, the encryption that keeps the Bitcoin blockchain secure can be broken within minutes, experts state that the necessary hardware and engineering infrastructure is not accessible with today’s technology and these developments are still at the laboratory level.
In addition, while some studies do not share technical details with the public, it is also said that progress is not openly announced within the sector. Developers have already begun to develop quantum-resistant signing methods that will reduce key exposure.
In the field of trading, it is known that the crypto market does not consider these risks important in the short term, and while Bitcoin is not expected to change its mining algorithm in the near future, updates such as BIP-360 against wallet risk are more likely to be implemented.
