In the first quarter of 2026, Bitcoin went through one of its weakest periods considering historical data. According to a table of quarterly returns of the digital asset, Bitcoin lost 18.3 percent in the first three months of the year. This result places Bitcoin in fourth place among the worst first quarter performances ever recorded.
The First Quarter of 2026 is One of the Weakest in Recent Years
When quarterly returns are examined with a chart covering many years, it is seen that Bitcoin experiences significant value fluctuations periodically. The decline in 2026 ranked fourth, especially after the first quarter losses of 49.7 percent recorded in 2018, 37.42 percent in 2014 and 24.14 percent in 2015. However, there have been examples in the past where price movements could change direction for the rest of the year following such weak quarters.
Closures and Market Cycle Fluctuation
Bitcoin’s past performance indicates that weak movements at the beginning of the year do not predetermine the course of the year. In 2017, for example, Bitcoin closed the first quarter of the year with a limited increase of 11.89 percent, and later in the year, it increased by 215 percent, especially in the last quarter. Looking at 2020, after a 10.83 percent loss in value in the first quarter, there were significant increases in the following quarters. While there was a gain of 68.68 percent in the first quarter of 2024, the year was more volatile on average. All these examples reveal that first quarter performance alone is not enough to determine the year.
Year-End Stands Out in Average Quarterly Returns
Data spanning many years reveals that the strongest returns in Bitcoin are generally collected in the last quarter of the year. Considering the quarters; The first quarter average is 46.25 percent, the second quarter is 27.11 percent, the third quarter is 6.05 percent and the fourth quarter is 77.07 percent. However, the median return calculated for the first quarter was measured as minus 2.26 percent. This shows that volatility is experienced more frequently at the beginning of the year and the general atmosphere of the market can change from quarter to quarter.
As in previous periods, it is being closely monitored whether the negative performance of Bitcoin at the beginning of the year will change in the following quarters. The view that strong recoveries are possible, especially as new market cycles come into play, comes to the fore from time to time.
As a result, although the more than 18 percent loss of value in the first quarter of 2026 is noteworthy, it is taken into account that the market could evolve in different directions after similar beginnings in previous years. The coming periods will determine whether Bitcoin will experience a recovery in line with its historical cycles.
