One of the prominent technical indicators in Bitcoin’s price movements in recent years draws attention to the intersection of the 50 and 100-week moving averages. The intersection of these two averages on the chart has historically marked Bitcoin market bottoms and often marked the end of long periods of decline.
He gave a clear signal three times in the past
This simple indicator first appeared in April 2015, then in February 2019 and finally in September 2022. In all three cases, as the 50-week average fell below the 100-week average, the downward trend in Bitcoin ended, while the bottom levels were seen and then serious increases were experienced.
For example, in 2015, while the cryptocurrency market was discussing that Bitcoin would fail, after this intersection, the prices reached almost $ 20,000 from $ 200 by the end of 2017, which brought about a big change. It was observed that the same pattern was repeated in 2019.
Finally, investor confidence was shaken after the bankruptcy of many companies and fraud incidents during the crypto winter of 2022; However, after these averages crossed again in September, the selling pressure weakened and the market started to recover from the bottom.
Near-term price movement and current situation
The sharp retreat in Bitcoin after the peak of $ 126,000 in October 20205 caused the price to drop to $ 60,000 for a short time. In contrast, the price has recovered from $65,000 to $75,000 in recent days. CryptoAppsy According to data, the current price of Bitcoin is traded at $ 75,000.
This latest rise, with the 50-week average still remaining above the 100-week average, technically indicates that the bearish signal has not yet been triggered. In other words, looking at historical references, the view that the general bear market in Bitcoin is not over and that prices may retreat further in the future gains weight.
Market expectations and possible scenarios
Although this indicator has historically produced reliable results every time, it still does not constitute a definite future guarantee. Possible developments include continued record highs in US stock markets and increased institutional demand through Bitcoin ETFs.
In such a scenario, a new upward movement may occur in Bitcoin if long-term support comes to the market. However, the fact that the averages have not yet crossed indicates that the general downward trend in the market may continue.
In Bitcoin’s past price charts, the periods when the 50-week average fell below the 100-week average were recorded as points where the market bottomed and then long-term rises began.
In summary, in this period where technical indicators and market dynamics intersect, investors need to evaluate both historical data and current macroeconomic conditions together.
