Bitcoin price is hovering between $66,000 and $68,000, struggling to reclaim the $70,000 level that has capped upside for more than a month. Despite repeated rejections, the broader structure remains intact, with bulls quietly defending support while selling pressure appears to be easing.
On-chain data now shows a noticeable slowdown in long-term holder distribution, suggesting that aggressive selling has cooled. This shift has strengthened expectations among larger market participants that Bitcoin could attempt a move toward the $72,000 region if resistance finally gives way.
The key question, however, remains unresolved: will fading distribution provide enough fuel for a breakout, or will leveraged bets and overhead supply continue to keep BTC trapped below $70,000?
Long-Term Holders Are No Longer Selling Aggressively
According to Glassnode’s Long-Term Holder Net Position Change metric, months of distribution appear to be slowing. The chart shows an extended red phase throughout late 2025, indicating long-term holders were reducing exposure during previous rallies.
However, recent data suggests this trend is stabilizing. The shift toward neutral and slightly positive net positioning implies that large, long-term participants are no longer aggressively selling into strength.
Historically, when long-term holder distribution fades, Bitcoin often enters a consolidation phase before attempting a renewed upside move. While accumulation has not yet turned aggressive, the decline in net selling suggests that supply pressure may be thinning.
This structural shift matters because long-term holders typically represent stronger hands within the market cycle.
$40 Million 40x Short Position Raises Volatility Risk
At the same time, derivatives data reveal a significant leveraged position in play. A trader has opened a $40.1 million short position on Bitcoin using 40x leverage, with an entry near $67,018. The liquidation level for this position sits around $72,322. In simple terms, if Bitcoin rises roughly 7–8% from here, that position gets wiped out.
This creates an important technical setup where, if a break above $70,000 is coupled with an increase in the bullish momentum, it may bring the short positions into danger. At 40x leverage, even a relatively modest upside move can trigger forced liquidation. If that happens, automated buying pressure could push BTC rapidly toward or beyond $72,000. However, as long as Bitcoin remains below $70,000, the short position remains structurally intact.
What Happens Next?
There are two realistic paths.
If buyers absorb supply and push BTC price above $70,000, the fading long-term selling pressure combined with a vulnerable short position could create a squeeze toward $72,000 or higher. But if resistance holds again, Bitcoin may continue consolidating below $70,000 while leverage slowly unwinds.
The market isn’t euphoric. It isn’t panicking either, but coiled. And the next breakout attempt could determine whether $72,000 becomes the next milestone for the Bitcoin (BTC) price rally or remains just out of reach.
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