Bitcoin, the flagship of the cryptocurrency market 
$90,846.46Although it experienced a short-term recovery to 93 thousand dollars after falling to 80 thousand dollars, it failed to make this rise permanent. The fact that the price has been stuck around 90 thousand dollars again in recent days reveals the strength of the selling pressure in the market. Technical indicators also support this weakness. Bitcoin is still trading below its 20, 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages. While this picture indicates that bear pressure continues in the short and medium term, it seems that especially large investors (whales) are turning to panic selling.
$10.5 Million Loss: Whales Give Up
The latest data shared by the on-chain analysis platform Lookonchain clearly revealed the extent of panic in the market. Accordingly, a large Bitcoin whale closed the position at a loss by selling 500 BTC in his possession for approximately 45.37 million dollars. With this transaction, the loss realized by the investor exceeded 10.5 million dollars. The whale in question withdrew 500 BTC from the Binance exchange at the level of $ 111,899, paying approximately $ 55.95 million, in order to buy the bottom in October. However, when the decline in prices did not stop, Bitcoin fell below 80 thousand dollars and the whale’s loss on paper exceeded 20 million dollars at one point.
While Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around 90 thousand dollars, this investor chose to sell in order to avoid further losses. Moreover, this is not just an isolated example. According to Checkonchain data, the loss realized by short-term investors (STH) exceeded 10,200 BTC, and the loss realized by long-term investors (LTH) exceeded 2,237 BTC. The fact that even long-term investors sold at a loss, especially during November, shows how long the downward trend lasted.
Mega Whales on the Field: They Turn Decline into Opportunity
Despite this air of surrender in the market, not every major player is moving in the same direction. The largest group of wallets, called “mega whales,” take advantage of selling waves and buy aggressively. The change in the total balance of mega whales has increased again to mid-October levels. This group accumulated over 100 thousand BTC net for three consecutive days. According to the latest data, the net balance of the mega whale group has increased by approximately 103 thousand BTC. This behavior shows that these investors see the current prices as an attractive discount level and have an upward expectation in the medium-long term.
On the technical side, the direction is not clear yet. According to Directional Momentum Index (DMI) data, the negative direction indicator (-DI) is around 41, while the positive direction indicator (+DI) is only around 16. This outlook suggests that bearish momentum remains strong and selling pressure may continue. If loss-making sales continue, Bitcoin is expected to fall below $90,000 and find support around $86,497. However, if the mega whales’ buying absorbs the selling pressure, the price may first test the EMA20 at $92,942, and then the EMA50 level at $100,131 may become the new target.
On the other hand, there is another development affecting the market. In recent days, money inflows have started to be seen again, albeit limited, in spot Bitcoin ETFs traded in the USA. This shows that the appetite for buying at low levels has not completely disappeared on the corporate side. However, the lack of a strong recovery in the spot market despite ETF inflows indicates that investor confidence has not yet fully returned.
