XRP watchers spend most of their time picturing the upside if the CLARITY Act passes. Analyst Gareth Soloway flipped the question around, and his downside answer gives traders a specific number to plan against.
Soloway was clear about the conditions that would trigger his bearish target. Soloway’s downside target for XRP if CLARITY fails sits near 70 cents right now, but only under a specific circumstance. “I think if it doesn’t pass, and I think the passing it has to be literally shut down as in like no chance,” he said, meaning a soft delay or stalled negotiations wouldn’t be enough to trigger that move on its own. It would take a genuine, confirmed failure of the bill.
If that happens, Soloway expects XRP to retrace back toward familiar territory. That level lines up with XRP’s high pivot range back in 2024, the analyst notes, pointing to a cluster of prior high points on the chart that sit right around the 70 cent mark.
He said that zone would also catch his attention as a technical trader, calling it a level he’d consider accumulating around if he were positioning for a long-term long trade.
What the Chart Looks Like Right Now
The downside scenario is a contingency, not Soloway’s base case. Right now, he’s actually bullish. XRP briefly fell below a dollar this week before quickly bouncing back above it, a move that triggered a wave of stop-loss selling and liquidations before buyers stepped back in almost immediately.
Soloway called that recovery a potential bottoming tail, a technical pattern that can signal a short-term low is in. He also pointed to a longer-term wedge pattern that recently broke out, along with support building in the 96 to 97 cent range. “Even as nasty as the chart looks, there are green shoots,” he said, describing the setup as bullish enough that he’s currently long XRP.
A Tighter Setup on the Shorter Timeframe
Separately, chart analyst CryptoMoses flagged a more immediate technical pattern forming on shorter timeframes. On the 4H chart, XRP sits inside a falling wedge with $1 holding as key support. If buyers manage to break that structure to the upside, the next levels to watch are $1.05 and $1.10, according to the analysis. “The setup is there,” the analyst wrote. “Now we wait for price to confirm it.”
Why the Ethics Debate Still Matters Most
Behind both scenarios sits the same unresolved question: what happens with the bill’s ethics provisions between now and early September. Negotiations around that issue remain the swing factor determining which of these two paths, the bullish breakout or the drop toward 70 cents, actually plays out.
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