Bitcoin is trying to hold on above the $65,000 level due to the weakening of spot demand, rising oil prices and the increase in US bond yields. While institutional fund inflows continue in the cryptocurrency market, losses for short-term investors and regulatory uncertainties in the USA increase the pressure on the price.
According to CoinDesk data, Bitcoin decreased by approximately 0.7 percent after its peak of $66,700 the previous day and was traded around $65,500. A sales-oriented outlook was also observed in altcoins with large market values such as Ethereum, Solana and XRP.
Spot Bitcoin Demand Weakens
CryptoQuant Founder Ki Young Ju stated that spot market demand for Bitcoin continues to weaken. Noting that demand in the futures market still remains positive, Ju stated that current levels are well below the demand seen during the market recovery about three months ago.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost also pointed out that short-term Bitcoin investors have been in the realized loss zone for about nine months. It is estimated that the average cost of investors holding Bitcoin for a maximum of 155 days is around 68 thousand 800 dollars.
In the current environment where Bitcoin is trying to maintain its permanence above 65 thousand dollars, it is evaluated that this group of investors can continue to sell their assets with an average loss of 4 percent. Short-term investors staying in the loss zone for a long time is among the indicators historically associated with bear market periods.
Oil and Bond Yields Suppress Risk Appetite
One of the important reasons for the pressure on Bitcoin was the rapid rise in oil prices. According to Bitget data, the barrel price of West Texas type crude oil increased by 3.6 percent during the day and exceeded the 90 dollar limit for the first time since June 11. Different data feeds showed WTI price fluctuating between $88.60 and levels above $90.
The rise in US bond yields also reduced the appetite for risky assets. The US two-year bond yield reached its highest level since February 2025 with 4.31 percent, and the 10-year bond yield reached its highest level since May with 4.66 percent.
Rising bond yields increase the opportunity cost of holding assets that do not generate interest income, such as Bitcoin and gold. This situation may lead investors to turn to fixed income instruments that offer higher returns.
US-Iran Tension and Crypto Law Uncertainty
The escalation of tension between the USA and Iran on the geopolitical front strengthened the cautious outlook in the markets. According to Axios, the United States has used B-1 long-range bombers in operations against targets affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. The introduction of heavy bombers was interpreted as operations going beyond previous limited air strikes.
Uncertainty regarding cryptocurrency regulations in the USA continues. Senate Republicans released the revised text of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act on July 22. However, many Democratic senators opposed the bill, arguing that its ethics provisions were inadequate.
Inflows Continue in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs
Despite the pressure on the markets, institutional demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs traded in the US continued. The funds recorded a total net inflow of $69.1 million in July 22 transactions, according to Farside Investors data. Thus, the positive flow streak reached its seventh trading day.
BlackRock’s IBIT fund led inflows with $38.8 million, while $21.5 million flowed into Fidelity’s FBTC fund, $5.4 million into Bitwise’s BITB fund, and $3.8 million into Morgan Stanley’s MSBT fund. Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust recorded an inflow of $37.9 million, while GBTC outflowed $38.3 million.
Spot Ethereum ETFs also finished their fourth consecutive trading day with net inflows. While a total of $72.7 million was transferred to the funds, BlackRock ETHA received $53.5 million and Fidelity FETH received $19.2 million.
Whale Purchases Continue
On-chain data shows that large investors continue to accumulate despite market volatility. According to data provided by analyst Ai Yi, a whale who has accumulated over $109 million in crypto assets since July added new assets of $17.75 million to his portfolio.
The investor in question withdrew 75 WBTC and 4 thousand 998 ETH from the platforms within four hours. While the whale’s total portfolio reached 56 thousand 400 ETH and 700 WBTC, the total value of the assets was calculated as approximately 148 million dollars.
It was stated that the average cost of the investor was $ 1,742 in Ethereum and $ 64,205 in WBTC, carrying an unrealized profit of approximately $ 11.42 million.
All Eyes on the ECB Decision and Below
The European Central Bank is expected to announce its interest rate decision this evening at 15.15 in Türkiye. ECB President Christine Lagarde will hold a press conference at 15.45. The expectation that the bank will keep interest rates at current levels without changing them is gaining weight in the markets.
UBS Gold Strategist Joni Teves remains optimistic about the medium and long-term outlook for gold. Considering the rise of gold stocks in mainland China and Hong Kong by around 20 percent in three days as a positive signal, Teves said that gold prices could recover from current levels by the end of the year.
UBS expects the ounce of gold to reach $4,675 at the end of 2026 and $4,800 at the end of 2027. It is stated that the markets will focus on the messages of the US Federal Reserve at the July meeting and the developments in the Middle East in the next period.
