A remarkable on-chain indicator has emerged that indicates that the bear trend in the Bitcoin market may be nearing its end. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said the signal, seen for the first time this cycle, has appeared before major Bitcoin recoveries in the past. However, the analyst emphasized that the indicator does not mean that the market will rise immediately, but rather that it may have entered the final phase of the decline period.
Critical indicator is on the agenda again
Darkfost noted that short-term investors’ cost base fell below long-term investors’ cost base, and this situation was maintained for three consecutive days. According to the analyst, this structure was seen in the last part of Bitcoin bear markets in previous cycles and then formed the basis for a new bull cycle.
Mini dictionary: STH refers to short-term investors who have held Bitcoin for less than six months. LTH, on the other hand, describes long-term investors who have held their assets for more than six months; The cost base of these two groups are among the frequently used on-chain metrics to track market cycles.
Darkfost states that the indicator in question does not indicate an immediate rise, but Bitcoin may have entered the final phase of its decline period.
The analyst also noted that this period has previously provided a favorable basis for investors who follow a regular purchasing strategy. It was observed that the gradual purchases made in these phases when prices remained relatively low were closely watched by long-term investors in previous cycles.
The cost of new investors decreased
The fact that new investors continue to buy Bitcoin during the current decline has reduced the average acquisition cost of short-term investors from $ 112,500 to approximately $ 69,000. This shift caused the STH cost base to fall below the LTH level, producing the signal historically seen near the end of bear markets.
Darkfost thinks the next bull cycle could gain steam as new investors begin collecting Bitcoin at costs above the average buying level of long-term investors. It is considered that similar changes in past cycles indicate a renewed buying appetite.
Short-term investors include those who have held Bitcoin for less than six months, while long-term investors include those who have held their positions for more than six months.
60 thousand dollars support stood out in the price outlook
Although Bitcoin has faced selling pressure recently, it continued to remain above the critical support zone. The asset, which dropped to $57,747 about three weeks ago, recovered after this decline and remained above the $60,000 level.
The market also remained balanced following Strategy’s decision to sell 3,588 BTC for approximately $216 million as part of dividend payments. This picture showed that despite the current pressure, the buying side has not weakened completely.
The next important resistance level to watch is $67,248. Exceeding this level may strengthen expectations that the bear market is over. While Bitcoin was traded at $64,141 at the time the news was prepared, its 24-hour transaction volume was $29.31 billion and its market value was $1.29 trillion. The price increase in the last 24 hours was 1.63 percent.
