As XRP tests a key long-term support zone, analysts are evaluating whether the recent decline has formed a permanent bottom. Compression in moving averages, wave structure and weekly momentum indicators indicate that the asset may be in the process of forming a wider bottom. However, certain resistance levels need to be retraced to confirm a stronger directional reversal.
Noticeable compression in moving averages
According to the two-week chart of market analyst EGRAG Crypto, the 50 EMA, 100 EMA and 144 WMA have approached each other in a prolonged sideways trend. The analyst states that these three averages are stuck on this scale for the first time within the current structure.
It is stated in the chart that similar squeezes have been seen before after macro bottoms and before sharp price expansions. However, in the current outlook, several stages are expected to be completed for the bottom scenario to gain strength.
EGRAG Crypto highlights in the two-week outlook that this is the first time the 50 EMA, 100 EMA and 144 WMA have been squeezed together during a major consolidation, with similar structure appearing after macro bottoms in the past.
In this context, the first condition is a reaction rise towards the $1.60 region, which is close to the 50 EMA. Following this move, EGRAG Crypto expects a pullback and a retest of the 0.618 and 0.50 Fibonacci area. The region in question stands out as a decisive accumulation range.
Fibonacci is a common tool used in technical analysis to measure possible support and resistance areas of the price. EMA stands for exponential moving average and WMA stands for weighted moving average and is used to track the short to medium term trend.
Mini dictionary: Elliott Wave Theory is a technical analysis approach that examines market movements in repeating waves based on investor psychology. RSI is the relative strength index that measures the speed and strength of price movement.
The chart shows XRP near the bottom of a long-term triangle structure, at around $1.10. At the same time, the ascending support line from previous cycle lows is maintained. Although the price continues to remain above the lower limit, the fact that the upper trend line has not been crossed indicates that the confirmation is not yet complete.
| Indicator | Level | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Close support zone | around $1.10 | Tracing near the bottom of the long-term triangle |
| First confirmation threshold | $1.22 | The first level to watch for a more permanent recovery |
| Second confirmation threshold | $1.60 | Critical resistance for the reaction rise to gain strength |
Weekly RSI outlook provides support
Market analyst Dark Defender, on the other hand, offers a separate framework based on the Elliott Wave structure and relative strength index on the weekly chart. The analyst thinks that the last low points to a possible completion of the 4th wave.
The main levels highlighted on the chart are $0.9327, $1.2193, $1.8815, $2.9032 and $5.8563. The fact that XRP is around $1.11 shows that the price is stuck between the first two reference zones.
Dark Defender assesses that a hidden bullish divergence has formed on the weekly RSI and the downside pressure may be weakening.
While the rising lower trend line on the analyst’s chart supports the recent pullback, it is noteworthy that the price remains below the descending resistance line. This outlook indicates that the market is stuck between support and the upper supply zone.
The weekly RSI indicator is close to the 34 level. A bullish divergence occurs when momentum signals a recovery while the price remains weak. However, this structure alone does not confirm the change in direction; It requires additional confirmation on the price and volume side.
In analysts’ consensus, a persistent breach of the $1.22 and then $1.60 levels could support a broader trend reversal. Unless these levels are retraced, the charts point to a search for balance rather than a definitive bullish reversal.
