Macroeconomist Lyn Alden says Bitcoin is facing the weakest investor confidence it has ever seen in the current market cycle. Alden, known for his work on Bitcoin, emphasized that the long-term success of the asset should be based on its own fundamental qualities, not external supports.
Confidence weakened, expectations remained cautious
Speaking in his interview with Natalie Brunell, Alden stated that he does not expect a new external factor to move Bitcoin upwards. According to him, Bitcoin’s survival will depend on its structural features, which are liquid, permissionless, and allow for the storage and transfer of value.
Saying that she does not see any external development that will save Bitcoin, Lyn Alden emphasizes that the asset must survive with its own strengths.
Alden stated that the last decline felt different from the period in 2022 when Bitcoin dropped to $ 16,000. He stated that investor interest remained more resilient at that time, but today, weakening narratives, a market structure where companies have become more prominent, and investor disappointment come to the fore.
In this context, Alden’s main scenario is that Bitcoin will not reach a new all-time high this year. However, he did not completely rule out the possibility of a sharp upward move due to Bitcoin’s volatile nature. It is considered a more positive picture if new lows are not formed in the short term and the technical outlook becomes horizontal or upward rather than downward.
Pressure on Strategy increased
As corporate adoption and the strategy of holding Bitcoin on company balance sheets became prominent headlines of this cycle, Strategy was also put under the spotlight again. The company, which is the world’s largest institutional owner of Bitcoin, announced that it sold 3,588 BTC in its notification at the beginning of the week. The total size of this sale was 216 million dollars.
Alden said that during the downturn, investors evaluated the company’s Bitcoin-secured capital structure and preferred share products more carefully. According to him, STRC could have a specific function for investors seeking indirect access to the company’s Bitcoin strategy without directly holding Bitcoin.
Mini dictionary: STRC stands out as one of Strategy’s preferred share products. While preferred shares often offer different returns and priority structures compared to common shares, they can provide investors with indirect access to a particular strategy without directly holding assets.
While Alden warns that higher-yielding BTC-related products may lead investors to take additional leverage, he states that the long-term performance of these products still depends on the Bitcoin price.
Alden also stated that he found the steps taken by the company recently to strengthen its collateral coverage structure and introduce additional protection steps reasonable. However, he noted that the permanent outcome of these measures will ultimately depend on Bitcoin price movement.
| Title | Detail |
|---|---|
| Strategy sales | 3,588 BTC |
| Sales amount | $216 million |
| Alden’s main script | No new peak expected this year |
Bitcoin protocol discussions are being watched cautiously
Alden also touched upon the discussions under the title Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 110, that is, BIP 110. The proposal aims to reduce unwanted congestion on the network by limiting transactions with high data load, including those used for visual storage purposes.
Mini dictionary: BIP stands for Bitcoin Improvement Proposal and refers to the official framework used for proposed technical changes to the Bitcoin network. Such proposals are not directly deployed; It goes through an extensive technical evaluation process among developers, users and ecosystem participants.
Alden said he is generally cautious about rapid changes to Bitcoin rules. Thinking that some proposals could make the network more complex or affect existing security mechanisms, Alden argued that technical arguments for and against protocol changes should be carefully examined.
However, he also criticized the way some proposals were presented to the public. Alden stated that portraying a protocol change as an existential issue for Bitcoin overstates the risks and that this approach does not provide an accurate framework.
