Bitcoin traded just above $62,000 and fell nearly 2 percent in the last 24 hours as the risk aversion trend in global markets strengthened. It was seen that the selling pressure was not only caused by cryptocurrencies, but also the sharp decline in semiconductor and artificial intelligence stocks weakened the appetite throughout the market.
Global pressure elements came to the fore
While Samsung-related profit sales increased volatility overnight in Asian markets, the escalation of military tension between the USA and Iran lifted oil prices by approximately 5 percent. Following these developments, US stock markets started the day with a decline. On the same day, the US Central Bank, the Fed, published the minutes of its June meeting. As the central bank of the USA that determines the monetary policy, the Fed is closely watched in global markets due to the signals it gives regarding the interest rate path.
The real importance of the Fed minutes for the markets lies in how the tone regarding the inflation and interest rate outlook will frame the next step.
Market pricing showed the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates steady at its next meeting on July 29 at approximately 73 percent. Therefore, investors focused on the guidance in the text rather than just the decision itself.
Futures set the direction
At the beginning of the week, buying appetite for Bitcoin was more evident. According to cumulative volume delta data, on Monday, there was a net purchase of approximately 585 million dollars in futures transactions and approximately 119 million dollars in the spot market. Thus, the total net purchase reached 705 million dollars and BTC rose above 64 thousand dollars.
However, on Wednesday, the situation was reversed. The rise in oil prices, the sharp sell-off in semiconductor stocks and the cautious atmosphere ahead of the Fed minutes led investors to reduce risk. While sales in the forward markets approached approximately 500 million dollars, sales of 86 million dollars were recorded in the spot market.
The decrease in the funding rate and the amount of open positions indicated that investors reduced their positions. However, looking at the week as a whole, it was noteworthy that funding rates continued to remain in the positive region.
Mini dictionary: Funding rate refers to the periodic payment applied to maintain the balance between long and short positions in the futures markets. Open interest indicates the total number of futures contracts that have not yet been closed and may indicate the level of leveraged interest in the market.
| Indicator | Monday | Wednesday |
|---|---|---|
| Futures market flow | +$585 million | Approximately $500 million in sales |
| Spot market flow | +$119 million | $86 million in sales |
| total direction | 705 million dollars net purchase | Risk reduction trend |
The long side came to the fore in the liquidations
Although liquidations in dollar terms remained relatively limited, the direction was one-sided. Most of Wednesday’s forced closings occurred on long positions. While long positions worth approximately $47 million were liquidated, liquidation of short positions remained at approximately $4 million.
Long positions accumulated around 61 thousand dollars indicate that if Bitcoin falls to this region, the decline may accelerate in the short term.
Liquidation data showed that there was a large cluster of long positions around $61k. If the price falls into this area, chain liquidations may increase selling pressure for a short time. Despite this, it was evaluated that buyers tried to cover the withdrawals of $ 60 thousand and below, and the spot market and BTC ETF purchases showed that demand continued in the current band.
Market sentiment remains fragile
The latest price action has highlighted how quickly pricing and market confidence can weaken when futures are the main fuel for the rise. The Crypto Fear & Greed index also showed that the general sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is still in the fear zone.
In addition to geopolitical tension and the Fed impact, Strategy’s recent sale of 3,588 BTC also put additional pressure on the market. The price of Bitcoin has remained below the company’s average cost of $74,582, leading investors to price in the possibility that this company with one of the largest BTC treasuries could sell more frequently.
