With Bitcoin trading around $64,000, the market outlook paints a more complex picture compared to previous cycles. Although the price fell approximately 50 percent from the cycle peak, this decline was more limited than the sharp corrections seen in previous periods. In contrast, the 2025 rally has failed to produce the broad momentum achieved by previous bull runs.
Divergence deepens after 2025 rally
Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, post-halving momentum and the revival in institutional demand were effective in the 2025 rally. During this process, Bitcoin reached its new peak, rising above $126,000 in October 2025. However, after this level, the direction turned downwards and evaluations regarding the next stage of the market diverged significantly.
Standard Chartered and some similarly lined corporate research desks think the cycle bottom may have been seen last month. In this view, structural demand from ETFs, purchases by companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets, and improvement in long-term capital flows weaken the possibility of a deeper decline.
Standard Chartered and similar institutions assess that strengthening ETF demand and institutional capital flows could limit a deeper pullback in Bitcoin.
Analysts who are on the more cautious side argue that the bear market may be approaching its final stages, but the bottom level has not yet been confirmed. In its assessment in June, Galaxy Research noted that traditional cycle indicators have not fully reset and therefore new losses are still possible. Galaxy Research is known as the research unit that publishes analyzes on crypto markets and digital assets.
Macro conditions and liquidity continue to be decisive
Hilbert Capital investment director Russell Thomson said Bitcoin is still in a downtrend and could test recent lows before establishing a permanent bottom. According to Thomson, the current structure is shaped by global macro conditions and liquidity rather than crypto market-specific signals.
Thomson predicts that the $56,000 to $52,000 range may be seen again in the first stage, and then the losses may expand to the $40,000 to $45,000 band. He associates this zone with previous consolidation phases seen in the market structure at the beginning of 2024. In terms of timing, it positions the possible bottom formation around October 2026. However, he states that this process can be brought forward if the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts or the regulation bill known as the CLARITY Act becomes law.
Mini dictionary: CLARITY Act is a regulatory initiative that aims to more clearly determine which institution will supervise digital assets in the USA and which assets will be considered commodities or securities.
Citibank analysts also lowered their 12-month price target for Bitcoin from $112,000 to $82,000 on July 1. The bank points out that Bitcoin’s strengthening of ties with traditional financial markets increases correlation with risky assets and macro liquidity conditions rather than reducing volatility.
| Institution or name | Opinion | Featured level |
|---|---|---|
| Russell Thomson | He thinks the downward cycle continues | $56,000 to $52,000, then $40,000 to $45,000 |
| citibank | Emphasizes that the impact of macro conditions is increasing | 12 month target $82,000 |
| Galaxy Research | Does not exclude additional risk of decline | $40,000 to $46,000 |
Capital competition comes to the fore instead of the bottom level
André Dragosch, head of European research at Bitwise, paints a more positive, but still cautious, picture. Dragosch says the current environment resembles the late phase of a bear market, and many indicators point to weakening downward pressure. He highlights that investor sentiment has deteriorated to levels seen after the FTX crash in 2022, which is often accompanied by seller fatigue.
André Dragosch emphasizes that the final bottom has not yet been established, but the market appears to be quite close to this point and no single indicator can reliably detect the cycle bottom.
Bitunix analyst Dean Chen also states that the decline in Bitcoin continues, but this process is now defined by global liquidity competition rather than the internal dynamics of the crypto market. According to Chen, US spot Bitcoin ETFs approved in 2024 created a more permanent institutional demand base, but Bitcoin simultaneously had to compete with major equity themes such as artificial intelligence investments and stock markets.
Chen therefore thinks that the real question is not when Bitcoin will bottom, but when it will again become the most attractive area for global venture capital. He also states that the weight of derivative markets in price formation has increased significantly compared to previous cycles, and that funding rates and open position data have a greater impact on short-term volatility. In this context, it is evaluated that Bitcoin may form a structural bottom that lasts longer than a sharp V-type bottom.
