Bitcoin hovered near two-week highs as it approached the weekly close. The focus in the market has been on the $62,700 level, where the 200-week simple moving average is located, which is considered critical to the long-term technical outlook.
Price struggle continues at the technical threshold
As trading conditions weakened over the weekend due to shallower order books and a three-day holiday in the United States, buyers carried the price as high as $63,450. However, some market observers assessed that pending sales at upper levels were pressuring the price.
Exitpump notes that the price encountered stronger passive selling from above, limiting the upside.
Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that short positions were liquidated during the rise. According to CoinGlass data, total liquidations in the crypto market in the last 24 hours reached $167 million. CoinGlass is known as a data platform that tracks liquidations and open interest movements in futures markets.
Mini dictionary: Short position liquidation is the forced closing of the positions of investors who opened bearish transactions when the price was rising. This process may accelerate the rise for a short time by creating additional buying pressure.
Daan Crypto Trades emphasizes that the market produces a classic short squeeze against intensively opened short positions, and forced position closings also support the rise.
However, trader Killa reminded that there has been significant weakness in the Bitcoin price for all of the last seven Mondays. For this reason, the expectation that volatility may increase again on the first trading day of the week came to the fore.
ETF entries and macro data expectations stand out
QCP Capital noted in its market assessment published on Friday that there may be a more supportive basis for crypto assets and other risky assets. The company assessed that this outlook was driven by renewed net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs.
The fact that the non-farm employment data announced last week in the USA was below expectations also softened the harsh expectations for an interest rate increase. While QCP Capital interpreted the 2 percent rise in gold as one of the clearest signs of dovish expectations, it stated that this movement seemed to be linked to safe haven and real interest protection rather than growth optimism.
CME Group FedWatch Tool data showed the probability of the US Federal Reserve leaving interest rates at the current level at about 80 percent at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on July 29. QCP Capital stated that the Consumer Price Index data coming before this date should also be supportive in order for broader optimism to gain strength.
| Indicator | Level | Importance |
|---|---|---|
| 200-week SMA | $62,700 | Long-term technical threshold |
| weekend peak | $63,450 | Last level reached by buyers |
| 24 hour purge | $167 million | Shows short position pressure |
| Possibility of interest rate remaining constant as of July 29 | About 80 percent | Macro signals expectations |
The market is now watching both the technical direction around $62,700 and the impact of new macro data on risk appetite. Analysts think that in the short term, Monday transactions may be decisive in whether Bitcoin can stay above this critical zone.
