While the weak technical outlook for Bitcoin price indicates continued downward pressure on the market, some long-term indicators are similar to the bottoms of previous bear cycles. As of July 3, 2026, Bitcoin is trading at $61,848. The daily trading volume of the asset, which increased by 0.84 percent in the last 24 hours, is 36.14 billion dollars and its market value is 1.25 trillion dollars.
Signals similar to bottom periods in technical indicators
Cryptocurrency analyst Michaël van de Poppe states that Bitcoin’s monthly RSI value has fallen to the lowest level in the entire period in which the asset has been traded. RSI is known as a momentum indicator widely used to measure the strength of price movement. In past cycles, very low RSI levels have often been seen near market bottoms.
Mini dictionary: RSI, or relative strength index, is a technical indicator that measures the speed and direction of price movement. Generally, levels below 30 are considered oversold, and levels above 70 are considered overbought. MACD, on the other hand, tries to show the change in momentum by monitoring the relationship between short and long-term moving averages.
According to Van de Poppe, this month’s monthly RSI level reveals a weaker picture than the bottoms seen in Bitcoin’s previous bear markets. The analyst thinks this outlook marks one of the harshest periods for Bitcoin, with current levels matching past cycle bottoms.
Van de Poppe emphasizes that the monthly RSI data has fallen to the lowest level in Bitcoin history, which reveals a similar picture to the extremely weak momentum seen at past market bottoms.
Pressure continues on weekly outlook
Another data that the analyst drew attention to was the weekly RSI. This indicator fell below the 30 level during the year. A similar picture was seen before only during the sharp decline in 2022. It is considered that the recent move of the price towards lower levels is similar to the structure in 2022.
The strongest ever negative expansion in the weekly MACD indicator was among the factors supporting the sell-side momentum. Van de Poppe also reports that some on-chain data is approaching levels seen in previous bear markets.
The largest negative expansion seen in the weekly MACD indicates that selling pressure remains strong, while some on-chain data is also reminiscent of the bottoms of previous bear markets.
The range between 57,500 and 62,000 dollars stands out
In contrast, Bitcoin price remains above the key support zone despite overall weakness. According to MA Ribbon data, BTC price is at $ 61,893. This level is below the 20-week moving average of $70,032, the 100-week moving average of $88,384, and the 200-week moving average of $88,580.
Bitcoin is also trading very close to the 50-week moving average at $62,652. This level is viewed as an important support area in the short term. The price rising above the 20-week moving average around $70,000 can be considered a positive development from a technical perspective.
| Indicator | Level |
|---|---|
| current price | $61,848 |
| 50 week average | $62,652 |
| 20 week average | $70,032 |
| Lower support zone | $57,500 |
Bands and support zone are closely watched
Bollinger bands also show that the selling pressure has not completely disappeared. The upper band is at $82,551, the middle band is at $70,032, and the lower band is at $57,513. The fact that the price is trading closer to the lower band reveals that the cautious outlook is maintained in the market.
If buyers defend the $ 57,500 level, the possibility of the price moving towards the middle band at $ 70,000 is evaluated. On the other hand, losing this support could put new downward pressure on Bitcoin. It will be closely monitored in the coming weeks whether the range between $57,500 and $62,000 can be maintained and whether the price’s effort to return to $70,000 will yield results.
