Although the Bitcoin price shows signs of recovery in the short term, the technical outlook remains cautious. BTC was trading around $60,079 on Bitstamp data at the time of analysis and was up about 3% in the last 24 hours. However, the overall technical summary indicates that the downtrend is not completely over.
There is a recovery in the technical outlook, the direction is not clear yet
In TradingView data, the composite technical view produced 13 sell, 10 neutral and 3 buy signals. Although this distribution keeps the general outlook at a neutral level, it shows that the downward trend is still felt. However, the recent recovery has led to a partial improvement in short-term market sentiment.
Although Bitcoin has stabilized following recent weakness, the broader trend does not appear to have fully reversed upward.
Momentum indicators, on the other hand, reveal a more balanced picture. The oscillator summary shows 0 sell, 9 neutral and 2 buy signals. While the RSI is at 38, it remains above the oversold threshold of 30. The Stochastic %K indicator is hovering near the 20 level. This outlook indicates that selling pressure may weaken. MACD and Momentum indicators also generate buy signals.
Mini dictionary: Elliott Wave Theory is a technical analysis approach that argues that price movements develop in waves depending on investor psychology. Fibonacci retracement levels are used to measure possible retracement zones after an upward or downward movement.
The $58,800 level stands out as long-term support
One of the prominent technical areas in the market was the $58,800 level. Analysts consider this area to be one of the most important long-term structural supports for Bitcoin. The level in question stood out as strong resistance during the two major peak periods in 2021. After Bitcoin rose above this area at the beginning of 2024, the area turned into a strong demand area.
This support was also seen to work in 2026. In February, the price briefly tested below this area, with the June candle close occurring almost directly around $58,800. This level also coincided with the monthly 50-period moving average. Therefore, many analysts think that long-term buyers continue to defend this area.
Maintaining the $58,800 level is seen as an important sign that the broader time frame structure in Bitcoin is intact.
Technical scenario for the $70,000 to $72,000 range is on the table
An independent TradingView analyst assesses that Bitcoin is gathering liquidity as it sags below last month’s low and then reaches the minimum 0.382 Fibonacci retracement required for the fifth wave in the Elliott wave structure. According to the analyst, if the last bottom is maintained, BTC may move towards the range of $ 70,000 and $ 72,000 in the short term.
In this scenario, the current decline is read as the completion of wave C within the horizontal correction structure. It is stated that if the support is maintained throughout July, a new upward movement area may be formed. However, this outlook is not definitive and is only viewed as one of the possible technical scenarios.
| Indicator | Level | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| current price | $60,079 | Short term recovery |
| main support | $58,800 | Long-term structural zone |
| close resistance | $60,550 to $60,570 | Short term moving averages |
| target range | $70,000 to $72,000 | Positive technical scenario |
Moving averages and Fed statements are monitored
The main obstacle to a possible upward move remains the resistance zone accumulated at the moving averages. Short-term EMA and SMA 10 indicators are in the range of $60,550 and $60,570. The higher period averages form a stronger barrier between $62,000 and $68,000. The 100- and 200-period averages point to a range of $70,000 to $76,000.
The pivot level is around $63,515. Resistance above $68.995, $79.465 and $95.414; Below, support levels of $ 53,046, $ 47,566 and $ 31,617 are monitored. Market participants are also monitoring Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s messages on inflation and monetary policy. It is evaluated that the possible signals given under this heading may have an impact on the direction of risky assets, including crypto assets.
