Cryptocurrency analyst Doctor Profit suggested that Bitcoin exhibits a market structure similar to that seen in 2022 and that a new harsh sales wave may come to the fore. According to the analyst, on the weekly chart, a similar structure that appeared before the death intersection in the previous bear market is being formed again. In this context, Doctor Profit pointed out the range of 42 thousand and 43 thousand dollars as a downward target.
Emphasis on similarity with 2022
Doctor Profit reminded that a death cross occurred on Bitcoin’s weekly chart in 2022. This technical structure emerged shortly after BTC broke below its 200-week moving average. The analyst said that about two months later, a surrender candle was seen in the range of 15 thousand to 16 thousand dollars, and Bitcoin declined by approximately 30 percent from there on.
According to the analyst, a similar scenario is taking shape this time as well. Bitcoin has fallen below the 200-week moving average again, and the moving average crossover structure seen before the previous death crossover has begun to reappear on the weekly chart.
Mini dictionary: A death cross is a technical signal that occurs when the short-term moving average moves below the long-term average. Surrender is used for the period when selling pressure reaches its peak and investors close positions intensively.
Doctor Profit argued that the 200-week moving average should not be seen as a strong base and stated that many investors who bought at this level are now stuck in the loss zone.
The range between 42 thousand and 43 thousand dollars stands out
Doctor Profit emphasized that the entry level is critical and said that where the price is taken directly affects the transaction result. The analyst also criticized the views that the entry price in the market is unimportant.
In his evaluation based on historical data, he claimed that Bitcoin fell approximately 30 percent below its 200-week moving average in every bear market. Doctor Profit stated that in past cycles, the market bottomed not with a slow recovery, but with a harsh surrender phase.
According to the analyst’s calculations, if the 60 thousand dollar circle is taken as a starting point and the past 30 percent decline model is applied, Bitcoin may head directly to the 42 thousand to 43 thousand dollar band. Doctor Profit noted that he has been monitoring this region as a target since September 2025.
Autumn expectation for bottom time
Doctor Profit said that the $42,000 to $43,000 range also coincides with the region where BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF product was launched, and there is significant technical support there. BlackRock is among the world’s largest asset management companies and is closely watched in the crypto market due to its role in the spot Bitcoin ETF process.
According to the analyst, the possible bottom area of the current cycle may occur in this region. Doctor Profit stated that the bottom formation could be seen in September or October 2026 and that different independent indicators point to the same price range.
Doctor Profit argued that the market is currently in the fifth stage of the scenario according to his classification. He stated that the re-emergence of the moving average intersection structure painted a picture consistent with his expectations.
The analyst said that full capitulation has not yet occurred and the fear in the market has not reached its peak. Doctor Profit accepts that the damage caused is increasing, but thinks that the extreme universe has not started yet. For this reason, he stated that he expects a full-scale surrender movement for the new purchase.
