Bitcoin is going through one of its weakest periods ever following the 2024 halving. According to CoinGecko data, the largest cryptocurrency is trading below $60,000. This outlook stands out in the market as post-halving periods have historically been characterized by strong price performance.
The usual pattern in the halving cycle is disrupted
Bitcoin halving occurs approximately every four years, or every 210,000 blocks. This mechanism is generally seen as a price booster because it cuts new supply in half. Market participants had also observed that this impact was felt strongly in previous cycles.
Price performance is measured over a full cycle of 1,460 days, starting from the day of the halving. In past cycles, this process has mostly proceeded in three stages. In the first part, rapid increases were observed due to the supply shock and intense speculation. Then came periods in which harsh pullbacks, capitulation sales and long-term horizontal course stood out. In the final stage, the market created a more balanced recovery ground before the next halving.
Investors who bought Bitcoin during the 2024 halving faced net negative returns in the current chart.
Weaker performance than previous cycles
Bitcoin has produced very high returns in previous post-halving cycles. Although marginal gains appeared to slow down in the last cycle, the period was still completed profitably. The 1,460-day period in question ended in April 2024 with a base price of $63,514.
In the current cycle, the traditional upward phase did not emerge. Bitcoin trended sideways for a while, then retreated and entered a weaker phase. This situation frustrated the predictions of investors who expected strong momentum in the post-halving period.
| Indicator | previous cycle | current cycle |
|---|---|---|
| First view after the halving | Return remained positive | Return turned negative |
| Price behavior | Ascension phase seen | There was a decrease after a horizontal trend |
| Loop closing level | $63,514 | under $60,000 |
Macro pressures stand out in the market
If the line representing the current cycle on the chart falls below the starting level, it indicates that investors who bought Bitcoin during the 2024 halving have moved into the loss zone. This picture is considered to be unusual in terms of post-halving periods.
Galaxy Digital Chief Executive Mike Novogratz said that the crisis around Strategy and concerns about a possible interest rate increase are behind the pressure on Bitcoin. Galaxy Digital is known as a US-based financial company focused on digital assets and blockchain.
Mike Novogratz stated that the pressure on Bitcoin stems from both the crisis around Strategy and concerns about a possible interest rate increase.
Attention in the market has turned to whether Bitcoin can re-establish a structural base in the later part of the post-halving cycle. However, current data show that the classical course seen in previous cycles has weakened significantly this time.
