While the XRP price is moving around $1.05 as of June 28, technical indicators indicate that the downward trend is not completely over. Although there are some signs that the selling pressure may be weakening in the short term, the broader outlook remains cautious.
Pressure continues on weekly outlook
Market analyst ChartNerdTA shared the chart on June 28 showing XRP breaking below the ascending support line it has maintained for several months. This breakout came after the 20-week exponential moving average, located around $1.57 on the weekly chart, was not breached.
XRP is also significantly below the 50-week exponential moving average at $1.83. This chart shows that the pressure on the main trend continues. The analyst points out that the weekly Stochastic RSI indicator has produced a bearish cross for the third time since the all-time high seen in July 2025.
ChartNerdTA emphasizes that in the current outlook, the right time for transactions has not yet come and the price structure has not clearly gained strength.
In the analyst’s assessment in May, the same rising support line was maintained for more than three months. With the last break, this technical structure lost its validity and the lack of persistence above the $ 1.50 region made the weakness even more obvious.
On-chain data highlights $1.06
Although the technical outlook has weakened, on-chain data points to some price areas where buyers have concentrated in the past. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlights the $1.06 level as the most important near-term support, according to the UTXO Realized Price Distribution, or URPD, indicator based on Glassnode data.
Mini dictionary: URPD is an on-chain distribution data that shows how many assets have previously changed hands in certain price ranges. This indicator is used to identify possible support and resistance areas by revealing the areas where investors are experiencing intense costs.
At this level, more than 830 million XRP previously changed hands. If the selling deepens, the data shows that there are also higher trading clusters in the $0.80, $0.62, and $0.51 areas. Approximately 923 million, 1.16 billion and 1.06 billion XRP accumulations were accumulated in these areas, respectively.
| Level | previous accumulation |
|---|---|
| $1.06 | More than 830 million XRP |
| $0.80 | Approximately 923 million XRP |
| $0.62 | Approximately 1.16 billion XRP |
| $0.51 | Approximately 1.06 billion XRP |
Ali Martinez states that the $ 1.06 area is the most important line of defense in the near term, and below this level, the $ 0.80 area may become the new focus.
Short-term indicators give mixed signals
In Bitstamp data, XRP was traded at approximately $ 1.05, while the intraday increase was limited. TradingView indicators reveal that despite the search for partial balance in oscillators, the weak outlook continues in trend-following instruments.
The RSI 14 value is close to the oversold zone at 32.41. Stochastic percent K is at 13.84 and CCI 20 is at minus 127.34. Momentum 10 and Williams percent R minus 85.73 value also indicate that the selling pressure may slow down. On the other hand, the MACD 12.26 indicator continues to remain in the negative zone at minus 0.0515.
Moving averages support bearish direction
Within the broader technical structure, most of the moving averages continue to generate sell signals. The 10-period averages are in the range of 1.08 to 1.09 dollars, and the 50, 100 and 200-period averages are in the range of approximately 1.21 to 1.53 dollars and generally support the downward trend.
One notable exception was the Hull moving average, which generated a buy signal near $1,025. The Ichimoku base line has a neutral appearance. In total, there are approximately 13 sell, 1 neutral and 1 buy signals in the moving averages. In the pivot data, the classic pivot is at $1.38, the first important resistance is at $1.50, and the lower support areas are formed around $1.10 and $0.81.
Although the current outlook does not completely rule out the possibility of a short-term reaction rally, XRP must maintain the $1.06 support and then reclaim higher resistance zones to regain strength. Otherwise, the market’s attention may turn to the next demand area around $0.80.
