After a short-term recovery at the beginning of the month, Bitcoin fell again this week, falling to around $58,075, its lowest level in the cycle. Although the price gained strength for a while, supporting upward expectations, this outlook was not permanent.
The recovery attempt was not permanent
Bitcoin traded around $59,100 on June 5, then rose rapidly to $64,185. Then, the asset climbed to $67,248 on June 15, and it was seen that the sellers took the lead again at these levels. In the following period, the price changed direction sharply and approached the $ 58,000 band again.
While Bitcoin is around $60,300 at the time of writing, losses continue in different time frames. The asset is trailing 2.35% on a daily basis, 21% on a monthly basis, and approximately 31% year-to-date. This chart indicates that selling pressure continues in the market.
On the daily chart, it is reported that a significant downward break occurred after the loss of an important support level. The price then attempted to reclaim this level but failed during the retest phase. Thus, the structure showing that the downward trend continues was confirmed.
In the analysis, it was emphasized that the bearish structure became stronger as the lost support could not be regained and the short-term recovery did not indicate a permanent return.
Technical indicators support the weak outlook
The fact that Bitcoin remains below previous support zones and prominent exponential moving averages indicates that weakness remains in the short and medium-term outlook. Therefore, it is considered that the pressure on the broader price structure continues.
Momentum indicators also reveal that the downward pressure maintains its effect despite short-term upward attempts. According to analysts, although the last reaction movement gave the impression that the market had changed direction, the indicators did not confirm this change and this situation was considered a bullish trap.
It was stated that there was also a hidden decline mismatch on the RSI side, which is the Relative Strength Index, during the recovery period. This structure generally indicates that the current downward trend may continue. RSI is a common technical indicator that measures the speed and strength of price movements.
On-chain data shows the bottoming process is not complete
Ki Young Ju, founder of on-chain data platform CryptoQuant, said that the cycle bottom has not yet been reached in Bitcoin. Drawing attention to the four-year dynamic price risk return ratio in his evaluation, Ki Young Ju stated that the price is still above the realized price level. CryptoQuant is known as a research platform that monitors on-chain data in crypto assets and analyzes market behavior through this data.
Ki Young Ju stated that Bitcoin continues to remain above the realized price level, which reflects the average investor cost, and in past cycles, the price has approached this level more before the bottom formation.
While it was reported that in past market cycles the price moved closer to this region before forming a bottom, it was noted that a similar structure has not yet emerged in the current cycle. Ki Young Ju also added that if this movement does not occur, a different cycle structure can be mentioned.
On the other hand, CryptoQuant analyst Zizcrypto stated that the indicator that monitors the price change of short-term investors turned negative in mid-March and declined further throughout June. The metric in question reached approximately minus 24% as of June 23. This data shows that short-term investors’ positions remain below last year’s average cost and the momentum from new investors has weakened.
When comparing the current decline with previous market resets, Zizcrypto reminded that similar periods saw declines of between 55% and 65% in this indicator. On the other hand, it was stated that the current decline remained more limited compared to historical examples, but the short-term momentum has not yet recovered.
