HYPE, the native token of the Hyperliquid ecosystem, has fallen 22 percent from its all-time high of $75, approaching an important support test in the 2026 uptrend. While participation in derivative markets weakened, the first signs of stabilization began to be seen on the spot side after the sharp sales in early June.
The critical region that stands out in the price
The most watched range in the market at this stage was the range between 50 and 54 dollars. According to the analysis, this area is the most important support area under the current price and the first major test of the upward trend that has been going on since January.
HYPE fell below $60 after a failed attempt to recapture the peak area around $76 on Wednesday. This pullback put pressure on the 50-day exponential moving average, which has served as trend support in the ongoing rally since March.
The last correction is considered to be similar to the compression structure in May 2025. At that time, the token made a new high around $40, followed by a pause that lasted several weeks without producing a significant bearish breakout on the daily chart.
Spot flows recover, derivative side remains weak
The relative strength index shows a similar outlook. The indicator, which retreated from the overbought region, nevertheless continues to remain above frequently mentioned levels with trend reversals.
On the other hand, on-chain data reveals a more cautious picture. The cumulative volume spread, used to track the net buying and selling balance in the spot market, has rebounded from lows during the recent correction. However, despite this improvement, spot CVD is still at approximately minus $95 million.
Mini dictionary: Cumulative volume difference is a measurement that shows the net difference between buy and sell transactions in a given period. If spot CVD is rising, it can be understood that buyers are more dominant; if it is falling, sellers are more dominant.
The data points to an easing of selling pressure rather than a strong accumulation. Although buyers seem to have started to meet the incoming supply at current levels, the size of the demand remains behind the $110 million sales seen when HYPE fell from $76 in early June.
Unraveling continues in leveraged transactions
Weakness in derivative markets is more evident. Open position size decreased from 2.2 billion dollars to 1.73 billion dollars. During the same period, derivative CVD also maintained its downward trend and was reported to have converged to approximately minus 389 million dollars, from minus 400 million dollars at the beginning of June. This outlook suggests that investors are reducing their risks rather than opening new positions.
The most important divergence observed at this stage is that although spot side flows show signs of recovery, participation in leveraged markets continues to decline.
The analysis noted that the $50 to $54 range is not only a technical support area, but also the intersection of an unclosed fair value gap on the daily chart and the 50-day exponential moving average. For this reason, the protection of the area in question is considered critical for the continuation of the higher peak and higher bottom structure that has existed since January.
On the other hand, a daily close below $53 could signal a significant weakening on the daily chart for the first time this year. In such a case, the 100-day exponential moving average around $ 51.6 stands out as the next support, while the $ 49 level and the $ 38 band below are among the areas to be followed.
