Bitcoin seems to be stuck between technical signals that indicate increasing downward pressure in the short term and support levels that may indicate a bottom formation in the long term. The next direction of the price may be decisive between a deeper correction and recovery scenarios.
In the short term, the risk of $ 57,500 came to the fore
Falling below the neckline of the head-and-shoulders formation observed on the four-hour chart brought the $ 57,500 level to the agenda for Bitcoin. In the analysis, it was stated that this breakout strengthened the short-term decline scenario.
While Bitcoin was trading around $62,150, it fell below the ascending neckline at around $63,000 and the weekly 200-period moving average around $62,450. However, the monthly 50-period moving average around $59,330 still stands out as an important support area.
According to the analysis, the $ 59,300 level is the main support between Bitcoin and the $ 57,500 target, while rising above approximately $ 65,500 is considered the first development that could weaken the downward structure.
A possible pullback towards $57,500 could also mean a break below this support on the higher time frame. It was stated that if this scenario occurs, the second quarter closing may remain weak and sales pressure may continue in the third quarter.
On the other hand, it is possible that the decline scenario will be invalid. It is reported that if the buyers regain the neckline and the price moves above the right shoulder area, the formation may be considered unsuccessful. In this case, while the $ 71,000 level stands out as the technical target, such a move may indicate that the local bottom formation may be completed.
Long-term channel support attracts attention
On the broader time frame, Bitcoin is trading near the lower end of a long-term regression channel that has overlapped with major market bottoms in the past. This structure shows that despite short-term weakness, the search for support on a larger scale continues.
The chart shared by CW shows three key levels: red support line, green linear regression curve and purple resistance line. The fact that Bitcoin is still below the green regression line indicates that a strong bullish phase in the market has not yet been confirmed.
According to the analyst, previous major rises gained momentum after Bitcoin settled above this regression line. In the current cycle, the price could not sustain above this level. For this reason, the market is considered to be in a sideways trend and accumulation process rather than a confirmed long-term rise.
However, maintaining support at the lower border of the channel may pave the way for a new recovery. A strong breach of the green regression line could support bullish expectations, while a loss of the red support line could increase the risk of a deeper correction. The analyst also pointed out that large investors continued their purchases, but the shared chart does not include direct data on this accumulation.
