Bitcoin continued to trade below $66,000 even though the global risk appetite strengthened after the memorandum of understanding signed between the USA and Iran. Despite the rise in stocks and commodities, the fact that the largest crypto asset did not react to a similar extent showed that company-related risks came to the fore in the market.
Macro relief was not fully reflected in Bitcoin
The agreement reached between the USA and Iran over the weekend reduced concerns about possible energy supply disruptions around the Strait of Ormuz. While this development created a more positive atmosphere in global markets, S&P futures rose more than 100 points above Friday’s close and tested the previous peaks.
Oil prices also reacted quickly. As crude oil fell below $75, investors lowered their expectations of permanent supply risk tied to the region. In contrast, Bitcoin remained in a narrow band and failed to capture the momentum exhibited by other risky assets.
According to QCP, the agreement between the US and Iran eased energy supply concerns, but Bitcoin remained below $66,000, amid questions about how Strategy will finance its dividend payments.
QCP is known as a digital asset trading company and market analysis organization based in Singapore. According to the company’s evaluation, the current picture indicated that the balance sheet and financing issues related to Strategy put pressure on Bitcoin rather than general macro conditions.
Strategy-related concerns are being monitored
One of the topics in the market’s focus was how Strategy would cover its future dividend obligations. The company recently repurchased $1.5 billion of its convertible senior notes due 2029. Additionally, MSTR raised approximately $200 million through the sale of its shares.
These steps increased the company’s cash window available for dividend payments to approximately 7.5 months, according to QCP. Despite this, investors are closely monitoring whether additional resources will be needed in the future.
| Title | Data |
|---|---|
| Bitcoin price level | Under $66,000 |
| repurchased bond | $1.5 billion |
| Funds obtained from share sales | 200 million dollars |
| Estimated cash period | 7.5 months |
The real question is whether the company will be forced to sell more Bitcoin if alternative financing sources are insufficient. QCP stated that this uncertainty is one of the main reasons why BTC has performed weaker compared to other risky assets in recent days.
Fed expectations also influenced pricing
The markets also monitor the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook. According to QCP’s note, investors are pricing that the tight stance will be maintained after inflation rises to 4.2% on an annual basis. The institution stated that the expectation of additional tightening in 2026 is also reflected in prices to some extent.
QCP’s market assessment emphasized that despite the improvement in macro conditions, concerns about Strategy’s dividend financing pose a particular obstacle for Bitcoin in the short term.
In this context, Bitcoin continued to remain below important resistance levels. Although the broad market outlook has eased, it is considered that crypto investors will continue to monitor developments regarding the Strategy balance sheet more closely in the short term.
